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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 35-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Period | Yearly Bias | Monthly Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Bullish | 5-yr rising from very low base (~5–10). Strong early momentum building. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Low base entry. Clean uptrend early in year. |
| Feb – Mar | Choppy | 5-yr volatile and erratic. Peaks mid-Mar ~50–55 but with large swings. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ↑ Peak Wk4 ↓ |
Unreliable. 5-yr diverges from longer TFs here. |
| Apr | Bearish | 5-yr declining through April. Playbook: SELL Wk1/2, BUY end Wk4. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ± Wk4 ↑ Flip |
SELL Wk1–2. Flip LONG end Wk4. Critical transition. |
| May – Jun | Choppy | 5-yr volatile mid-range. No sustained trend. Erratic swings. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
Avoid. 5-yr offers no edge in this window. |
| Jul | Choppy | 5-yr shows brief spike to ~40 then collapses. No sustained direction. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ± Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
Short-term spike only. No conviction. |
| Aug – Sep | Bearish | 5-yr weak and declining. Secondary low forming. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ± Wk4 ↓ |
Weak window. Short bias confirmed. |
| Oct | Bottoming | 5-yr base forming. Erratic. Begin watching for recovery signal. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Transition month. Late Oct turn possible. |
| Nov – Dec | Strongly Bullish | 5-yr surges strongly into year end. Peaks near ~95–100 by late Dec. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑↑ Wk4 ↑↑ |
Strongest seasonal window. All TFs align. |
| Period | Yearly Bias | Monthly Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Bullish | 15-yr rises from ~50. Moderate bullish trend building into Feb/Mar peak. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Consistent uptrend. Reliable seasonal lift. |
| Feb – Mar | Bullish Peak | 15-yr peaks mid-March ~70–75. Strong rally then rollover begins. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑ Peak Wk4 ↓ |
Peak forms mid-Mar. Exit longs late Mar Wk3/4. |
| Apr | Bearish | 15-yr declining from Mar peak through all of April. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↑ Turn |
SHORT Wk1–3. Late Wk4 turn — cover/flip LONG. |
| May | Strongly Bearish | 15-yr drops sharply to ~5–10. Deepest trough of the year around late May. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Deepest waterfall. Hold short from Apr into May. |
| Jun – Jul | Sharp Bounce | 15-yr rebounds sharply from May trough. Peaks ~70 around late Jun/early Jul. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ± |
Strong counter-trend rally. Cover shorts, enter long Jun Wk1. |
| Aug – Sep | Bearish | 15-yr rolls over from Jul peak. Secondary decline through Aug/Sep. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Re-enter short after Jul peak. Secondary bear leg. |
| Oct | Trough / Base | 15-yr second trough (~25). Lower than Jun. Base forming late Oct. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ± Wk3 ± Wk4 ↑ |
Second trough. Cover remaining shorts late Oct. |
| Nov – Dec | Strongly Bullish | 15-yr surges strongly. Rally from ~25 to ~85–90 by Dec. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Strongest trend of the year. All TFs aligned LONG. |
| Period | Yearly Bias | Monthly Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Bullish | 35-yr rises from lows (~15–20). Steady structural uptrend building. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Structural bull. Reliable low-volatility rise. |
| Feb – Mar | Bullish Peak | 35-yr peaks late Feb ~85–90 — earliest of all 3 TFs. Sharp rollover follows. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑ Peak Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓↓ |
35-yr peaks EARLIEST — late Feb. Exit before 15-yr turns. |
| Apr | Bearish | 35-yr declining from Mar peak. Steady bear through April. Transition late Wk4. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↑ Turn |
Structural decline. Wk4 flip confirms playbook BUY signal. |
| May | Strongly Bearish | 35-yr drops to near ~5–10. Primary trough of year. Structural low. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Deepest structural trough. Hold short into early May. |
| Jun – Jul | Strong Bounce | 35-yr bounces sharply. Peaks ~90–95 late Jun/early Jul — highest mid-year reading. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↓ |
Strongest mid-year bounce. Enter long Jun Wk1. |
| Aug – Sep | Bearish | 35-yr declines from Jul peak. Secondary trough forms late Sep/early Oct. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Re-entry short after Jul peak. 35-yr bear confirmed. |
| Oct | Major Trough | 35-yr hits major secondary low (~5). Hard reversal follows late Oct. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Low Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑↑ |
Critical reversal month. Cover ALL shorts. Enter long late Oct. |
| Nov – Dec | Strongly Bullish | 35-yr surges from Oct trough to ~95–100 by year end. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑↑ Wk4 ↑↑ |
Highest conviction LONG of entire year. All 3 TFs fully aligned. |