Click any month row to expand week-by-week breakdown. Current month opens automatically.
| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 40-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | 40-YR starts January at a mid-range ~50 but falls rapidly toward its annual low. 15-YR starts very low (~5–10). 5-YR also near lows (~15). All three TFs declining through January. The year begins bearishly for ULSD — unlike crude which just idles low, ULSD is actively falling. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
BEAR — 40-YR falls from ~50 toward annual low; all declining |
| February | CHOP | 40-YR hits its ANNUAL LOW (~5–8) in early February. 15-YR also near 0. 5-YR near 0. This is the most extreme trough zone for ULSD's long-term seasonal. Recovery begins mid-month. This is the H1 long entry setup — confirm before acting. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
TROUGH — 40-YR hits annual low ~5; all three at annual lows |
| March | BULL | Recovery gains traction. 40-YR climbs from ~5 to ~15–20. 15-YR surges more aggressively toward 40–50. 5-YR recovering steadily. The April 5-YR peak is the target — build position in March. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H1 spring recovery; 15-YR leads, 40-YR climbing |
| April | BULL | 5-YR surges to its ANNUAL HIGH (~100) in early April. 15-YR also peaks at ~80–85 in April. 40-YR less extreme but also rising to ~35–45. The spring diesel demand surge. Longs should be tightened by mid-April when the 5-YR peak is confirmed — sharp reversal follows. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓ |
LONG → PEAK — 5-YR spikes to 100 early April; 15-YR ~80–85 |
| May | BEAR | 5-YR crashes hard from its April 100 peak. 15-YR also falling. 40-YR is more resilient but choppy. This is the classic refinery maintenance → injection season transition. 40-YR holds better because the long-term demand profile remains supported. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
TRANSITION — 5-YR crashes from April 100 peak; 40-YR still elevated |
| June | BEAR | The H1 trough. 40-YR falls to ~20 (its local seasonal low). 15-YR at ~50–55. 5-YR at ~25. This is the summer doldrums for heating oil/diesel. The H2 recovery entry is being set up — late June / early July is the inflection. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
H1 TROUGH — 40-YR hits ~20; all three at local lows |
| July | BULL | H2 recovery gains traction as the market looks ahead to winter heating demand. 40-YR rises from ~20 to ~50. 15-YR from ~50 to ~65. 5-YR from ~25 to ~35–40. All three TFs recovering in sync. Build position for the September-October annual peak. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 recovery begins; heating demand season approaching |
| August | BULL | H2 heating demand surge accelerates. 15-YR approaches ~80 by end of August. 40-YR rising toward ~60–65. 5-YR also strong. September-October annual peak is the target. Conviction high. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 surge; 15-YR approaches ~80; September peak loading |
| September | BULL | 15-YR hits near 100 in September — its annual high. 40-YR surging strongly toward its October peak. 5-YR also near peak (~80). This is the highest-conviction long window of H2 for ULSD. Full TF alignment driven by winter heating demand. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 15-YR near 100; 40-YR surging toward October annual peak |
| October | BULL | 40-YR hits its ANNUAL HIGH (~100) in early-to-mid October. 15-YR also near 100. 5-YR peaks ~80. This is the ULSD seasonal high — the year's most critical reversal point. Exit longs at 40-YR 100 and flip short. The winter demand is fully priced in; rollover follows. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
40-YR ANNUAL HIGH ~100 → FLIP SHORT; winter demand peak |
| November | BEAR | Continued seasonal decline from October's annual high. 40-YR falls from ~100 to ~70–75. 15-YR from ~95 to ~65–70. 5-YR from ~80 to ~55. All three declining. The winter demand is fully priced; seasonal selling takes over. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — rollover from October annual high; all TFs declining |
| December | BEAR | Continued moderate seasonal decline. 40-YR falls to ~68.24 by year-end. 15-YR to ~67.33. 5-YR to ~53.78. The decline is orderly — less dramatic than CL's December. Year ends at mid-to-high range for 40-YR and 15-YR, reflecting the structural winter demand support. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
BEAR — moderate year-end decline; 40-YR settles at 68.24 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | 40-YR starts January at a mid-range ~50 but falls rapidly toward its annual low. 15-YR starts very low (~5–10). 5-YR also near lows (~15). All three TFs declining through January. The year begins bearishly for ULSD — unlike crude which just idles low, ULSD is actively falling. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
BEAR — 40-YR falls from ~50 toward annual low; all declining |
| February | CHOP | 40-YR hits its ANNUAL LOW (~5–8) in early February. 15-YR also near 0. 5-YR near 0. This is the most extreme trough zone for ULSD's long-term seasonal. Recovery begins mid-month. This is the H1 long entry setup — confirm before acting. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
TROUGH — 40-YR hits annual low ~5; all three at annual lows |
| March | BULL | Recovery gains traction. 40-YR climbs from ~5 to ~15–20. 15-YR surges more aggressively toward 40–50. 5-YR recovering steadily. The April 5-YR peak is the target — build position in March. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H1 spring recovery; 15-YR leads, 40-YR climbing |
| April | BULL | 5-YR surges to its ANNUAL HIGH (~100) in early April. 15-YR also peaks at ~80–85 in April. 40-YR less extreme but also rising to ~35–45. The spring diesel demand surge. Longs should be tightened by mid-April when the 5-YR peak is confirmed — sharp reversal follows. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓ |
LONG → PEAK — 5-YR spikes to 100 early April; 15-YR ~80–85 |
| May | BEAR | 5-YR crashes hard from its April 100 peak. 15-YR also falling. 40-YR is more resilient but choppy. This is the classic refinery maintenance → injection season transition. 40-YR holds better because the long-term demand profile remains supported. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
TRANSITION — 5-YR crashes from April 100 peak; 40-YR still elevated |
| June | BEAR | The H1 trough. 40-YR falls to ~20 (its local seasonal low). 15-YR at ~50–55. 5-YR at ~25. This is the summer doldrums for heating oil/diesel. The H2 recovery entry is being set up — late June / early July is the inflection. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
H1 TROUGH — 40-YR hits ~20; all three at local lows |
| July | BULL | H2 recovery gains traction as the market looks ahead to winter heating demand. 40-YR rises from ~20 to ~50. 15-YR from ~50 to ~65. 5-YR from ~25 to ~35–40. All three TFs recovering in sync. Build position for the September-October annual peak. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 recovery begins; heating demand season approaching |
| August | BULL | H2 heating demand surge accelerates. 15-YR approaches ~80 by end of August. 40-YR rising toward ~60–65. 5-YR also strong. September-October annual peak is the target. Conviction high. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 surge; 15-YR approaches ~80; September peak loading |
| September | BULL | 15-YR hits near 100 in September — its annual high. 40-YR surging strongly toward its October peak. 5-YR also near peak (~80). This is the highest-conviction long window of H2 for ULSD. Full TF alignment driven by winter heating demand. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 15-YR near 100; 40-YR surging toward October annual peak |
| October | BULL | 40-YR hits its ANNUAL HIGH (~100) in early-to-mid October. 15-YR also near 100. 5-YR peaks ~80. This is the ULSD seasonal high — the year's most critical reversal point. Exit longs at 40-YR 100 and flip short. The winter demand is fully priced in; rollover follows. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
40-YR ANNUAL HIGH ~100 → FLIP SHORT; winter demand peak |
| November | BEAR | Continued seasonal decline from October's annual high. 40-YR falls from ~100 to ~70–75. 15-YR from ~95 to ~65–70. 5-YR from ~80 to ~55. All three declining. The winter demand is fully priced; seasonal selling takes over. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — rollover from October annual high; all TFs declining |
| December | BEAR | Continued moderate seasonal decline. 40-YR falls to ~68.24 by year-end. 15-YR to ~67.33. 5-YR to ~53.78. The decline is orderly — less dramatic than CL's December. Year ends at mid-to-high range for 40-YR and 15-YR, reflecting the structural winter demand support. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
BEAR — moderate year-end decline; 40-YR settles at 68.24 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | 40-YR starts January at a mid-range ~50 but falls rapidly toward its annual low. 15-YR starts very low (~5–10). 5-YR also near lows (~15). All three TFs declining through January. The year begins bearishly for ULSD — unlike crude which just idles low, ULSD is actively falling. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
BEAR — 40-YR falls from ~50 toward annual low; all declining |
| February | CHOP | 40-YR hits its ANNUAL LOW (~5–8) in early February. 15-YR also near 0. 5-YR near 0. This is the most extreme trough zone for ULSD's long-term seasonal. Recovery begins mid-month. This is the H1 long entry setup — confirm before acting. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
TROUGH — 40-YR hits annual low ~5; all three at annual lows |
| March | BULL | Recovery gains traction. 40-YR climbs from ~5 to ~15–20. 15-YR surges more aggressively toward 40–50. 5-YR recovering steadily. The April 5-YR peak is the target — build position in March. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H1 spring recovery; 15-YR leads, 40-YR climbing |
| April | BULL | 5-YR surges to its ANNUAL HIGH (~100) in early April. 15-YR also peaks at ~80–85 in April. 40-YR less extreme but also rising to ~35–45. The spring diesel demand surge. Longs should be tightened by mid-April when the 5-YR peak is confirmed — sharp reversal follows. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG → PEAK — 5-YR spikes to 100 early April; 15-YR ~80–85 |
| May | CHOP | 5-YR crashes hard from its April 100 peak. 15-YR also falling. 40-YR is more resilient but choppy. This is the classic refinery maintenance → injection season transition. 40-YR holds better because the long-term demand profile remains supported. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
TRANSITION — 5-YR crashes from April 100 peak; 40-YR still elevated |
| June | BEAR | The H1 trough. 40-YR falls to ~20 (its local seasonal low). 15-YR at ~50–55. 5-YR at ~25. This is the summer doldrums for heating oil/diesel. The H2 recovery entry is being set up — late June / early July is the inflection. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
H1 TROUGH — 40-YR hits ~20; all three at local lows |
| July | BULL | H2 recovery gains traction as the market looks ahead to winter heating demand. 40-YR rises from ~20 to ~50. 15-YR from ~50 to ~65. 5-YR from ~25 to ~35–40. All three TFs recovering in sync. Build position for the September-October annual peak. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 recovery begins; heating demand season approaching |
| August | BULL | H2 heating demand surge accelerates. 15-YR approaches ~80 by end of August. 40-YR rising toward ~60–65. 5-YR also strong. September-October annual peak is the target. Conviction high. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 surge; 15-YR approaches ~80; September peak loading |
| September | BULL | 15-YR hits near 100 in September — its annual high. 40-YR surging strongly toward its October peak. 5-YR also near peak (~80). This is the highest-conviction long window of H2 for ULSD. Full TF alignment driven by winter heating demand. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 15-YR near 100; 40-YR surging toward October annual peak |
| October | BULL | 40-YR hits its ANNUAL HIGH (~100) in early-to-mid October. 15-YR also near 100. 5-YR peaks ~80. This is the ULSD seasonal high — the year's most critical reversal point. Exit longs at 40-YR 100 and flip short. The winter demand is fully priced in; rollover follows. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
40-YR ANNUAL HIGH ~100 → FLIP SHORT; winter demand peak |
| November | BEAR | Continued seasonal decline from October's annual high. 40-YR falls from ~100 to ~70–75. 15-YR from ~95 to ~65–70. 5-YR from ~80 to ~55. All three declining. The winter demand is fully priced; seasonal selling takes over. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — rollover from October annual high; all TFs declining |
| December | BEAR | Continued moderate seasonal decline. 40-YR falls to ~68.24 by year-end. 15-YR to ~67.33. 5-YR to ~53.78. The decline is orderly — less dramatic than CL's December. Year ends at mid-to-high range for 40-YR and 15-YR, reflecting the structural winter demand support. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
BEAR — moderate year-end decline; 40-YR settles at 68.24 |