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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 35-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | All three TFs near annual lows (5–15 range). The post-holiday gasoline demand slump. 35-YR, 15-YR, and 5-YR all depressed. Not a high-conviction month in either direction, but the seasonal bias is clearly downward from here — wait for the explosive March rally. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
NEAR ANNUAL LOWS — worst time to be long gasoline |
| February | CHOP | Early February brief dip (35-YR near 0), then all TFs begin recovering. This is the final seasonal base before the explosive spring driving-season rally. Key month to confirm position: if price lifts with TFs, the March/April setup is loading. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
BASING — early-Feb dip then recovery begins; setup for March |
| March | BULL | THE explosive month for gasoline. 15-YR surges from ~10 to ~70 — a +60 point single-month move, the largest single-month seasonal move for any TF across all energy assets. 35-YR from ~5 to ~50–55. 5-YR also surges. Buy the dip early March and hold into April peak. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — EXPLOSIVE spring driving-season rally; 15-YR +60 pts in one month |
| April | BULL | THE most precise seasonal peak in all energy. ALL THREE TFs (35-YR, 15-YR, 5-YR) reach 100 simultaneously in April — the cleanest, most extreme peak convergence in the energy complex. This is both the year's highest-conviction LONG (early April) AND its highest-conviction SHORT entry (peak of April). Do NOT miss this reversal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
THREE-WAY 100 PEAK → FLIP SHORT; cleanest peak in energy complex |
| May | BEAR | Orderly post-peak decline. All three TFs falling from April 100. 15-YR from ~80 to ~65. 35-YR from ~80 to ~65. 5-YR from ~70 to ~55–60. The driving season is fully priced in April; May is the seasonal unwinding. Short bias throughout. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — orderly decline from April peak; driving-season pricing complete |
| June | BEAR | Continued seasonal decline from the April peak. 35-YR falls from ~65 to ~60. 15-YR from ~65 to ~60. 5-YR from ~55 to ~45–50. The summer gasoline bear continues as the driving season premium fades. July 5-YR annual low approaching. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — continued summer bear; all TFs declining toward July low |
| July | BEAR | 5-YR hits its annual low (~25) in July — extreme short-term weakness. 35-YR and 15-YR however are broadly flat around 60–65, providing a supportive backdrop. The end-of-summer dynamic creates mixed TF signals. Not a high-conviction period. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
MIXED — 5-YR annual low (~25); 35-YR and 15-YR broadly flat |
| August | CHOP | End of driving season creates a broadly flat/choppy seasonal for all TFs. 35-YR and 15-YR hover around 60–65. 5-YR recovering slightly from July lows. No strong directional bias — this is the 'death zone' before the October-December seasonal bear. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓ |
CHOP — end-of-driving-season sideways; 35-YR and 15-YR flat |
| September | BEAR | Autumn bear acceleration. All three TFs declining from their summer flat zone toward October's extreme lows. 35-YR from ~60 toward ~30–35. 15-YR from ~60 toward ~40. This is the entry for the extended autumn-winter short position. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — autumn bear acceleration begins; all TFs declining |
| October | BEAR | THE most extreme autumn sell in gasoline. 35-YR CRASHES to near 0 in October — the year's annual low for the long-term seasonal. 15-YR falls to ~30–35. 5-YR also near ~35–40. This is the most extreme single-month seasonal collapse in the energy complex after April's three-way peak. Maximum short conviction. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — 35-YR CRASHES to near 0; highest-conviction short of H2 |
| November | BEAR | Continued extended bear. 35-YR at very low levels (15–25). 15-YR at ~25–30. 5-YR at ~25–30. All three declining or flat near annual lows. The winter driving season is no match for the post-driving-season structural seasonal weakness. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — extended autumn bear; 35-YR at very low levels |
| December | BEAR | 35-YR continues its late-year decline, touching near 0 in mid-December before a slight recovery. This is one of the most bearish year-end seasonals in the complex. Year ends with 35-YR=29.5, 15-YR=41.59, 5-YR=37.04 — all well below mid-range. Winter is the weakest structural period for gasoline. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
BEAR — 35-YR near 0 mid-Dec; year ends at 29.5/41.59/37.04 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | All three TFs near annual lows (5–15 range). The post-holiday gasoline demand slump. 35-YR, 15-YR, and 5-YR all depressed. Not a high-conviction month in either direction, but the seasonal bias is clearly downward from here — wait for the explosive March rally. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
NEAR ANNUAL LOWS — worst time to be long gasoline |
| February | CHOP | Early February brief dip (35-YR near 0), then all TFs begin recovering. This is the final seasonal base before the explosive spring driving-season rally. Key month to confirm position: if price lifts with TFs, the March/April setup is loading. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
BASING — early-Feb dip then recovery begins; setup for March |
| March | BULL | THE explosive month for gasoline. 15-YR surges from ~10 to ~70 — a +60 point single-month move, the largest single-month seasonal move for any TF across all energy assets. 35-YR from ~5 to ~50–55. 5-YR also surges. Buy the dip early March and hold into April peak. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — EXPLOSIVE spring driving-season rally; 15-YR +60 pts in one month |
| April | BULL | THE most precise seasonal peak in all energy. ALL THREE TFs (35-YR, 15-YR, 5-YR) reach 100 simultaneously in April — the cleanest, most extreme peak convergence in the energy complex. This is both the year's highest-conviction LONG (early April) AND its highest-conviction SHORT entry (peak of April). Do NOT miss this reversal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
THREE-WAY 100 PEAK → FLIP SHORT; cleanest peak in energy complex |
| May | BEAR | Orderly post-peak decline. All three TFs falling from April 100. 15-YR from ~80 to ~65. 35-YR from ~80 to ~65. 5-YR from ~70 to ~55–60. The driving season is fully priced in April; May is the seasonal unwinding. Short bias throughout. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — orderly decline from April peak; driving-season pricing complete |
| June | BEAR | Continued seasonal decline from the April peak. 35-YR falls from ~65 to ~60. 15-YR from ~65 to ~60. 5-YR from ~55 to ~45–50. The summer gasoline bear continues as the driving season premium fades. July 5-YR annual low approaching. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — continued summer bear; all TFs declining toward July low |
| July | CHOP | 5-YR hits its annual low (~25) in July — extreme short-term weakness. 35-YR and 15-YR however are broadly flat around 60–65, providing a supportive backdrop. The end-of-summer dynamic creates mixed TF signals. Not a high-conviction period. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
MIXED — 5-YR annual low (~25); 35-YR and 15-YR broadly flat |
| August | CHOP | End of driving season creates a broadly flat/choppy seasonal for all TFs. 35-YR and 15-YR hover around 60–65. 5-YR recovering slightly from July lows. No strong directional bias — this is the 'death zone' before the October-December seasonal bear. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓ |
CHOP — end-of-driving-season sideways; 35-YR and 15-YR flat |
| September | BEAR | Autumn bear acceleration. All three TFs declining from their summer flat zone toward October's extreme lows. 35-YR from ~60 toward ~30–35. 15-YR from ~60 toward ~40. This is the entry for the extended autumn-winter short position. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — autumn bear acceleration begins; all TFs declining |
| October | BEAR | THE most extreme autumn sell in gasoline. 35-YR CRASHES to near 0 in October — the year's annual low for the long-term seasonal. 15-YR falls to ~30–35. 5-YR also near ~35–40. This is the most extreme single-month seasonal collapse in the energy complex after April's three-way peak. Maximum short conviction. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — 35-YR CRASHES to near 0; highest-conviction short of H2 |
| November | BEAR | Continued extended bear. 35-YR at very low levels (15–25). 15-YR at ~25–30. 5-YR at ~25–30. All three declining or flat near annual lows. The winter driving season is no match for the post-driving-season structural seasonal weakness. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — extended autumn bear; 35-YR at very low levels |
| December | BEAR | 35-YR continues its late-year decline, touching near 0 in mid-December before a slight recovery. This is one of the most bearish year-end seasonals in the complex. Year ends with 35-YR=29.5, 15-YR=41.59, 5-YR=37.04 — all well below mid-range. Winter is the weakest structural period for gasoline. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
BEAR — 35-YR near 0 mid-Dec; year ends at 29.5/41.59/37.04 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | All three TFs near annual lows (5–15 range). The post-holiday gasoline demand slump. 35-YR, 15-YR, and 5-YR all depressed. Not a high-conviction month in either direction, but the seasonal bias is clearly downward from here — wait for the explosive March rally. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
NEAR ANNUAL LOWS — worst time to be long gasoline |
| February | CHOP | Early February brief dip (35-YR near 0), then all TFs begin recovering. This is the final seasonal base before the explosive spring driving-season rally. Key month to confirm position: if price lifts with TFs, the March/April setup is loading. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
BASING — early-Feb dip then recovery begins; setup for March |
| March | BULL | THE explosive month for gasoline. 15-YR surges from ~10 to ~70 — a +60 point single-month move, the largest single-month seasonal move for any TF across all energy assets. 35-YR from ~5 to ~50–55. 5-YR also surges. Buy the dip early March and hold into April peak. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — EXPLOSIVE spring driving-season rally; 15-YR +60 pts in one month |
| April | BULL | THE most precise seasonal peak in all energy. ALL THREE TFs (35-YR, 15-YR, 5-YR) reach 100 simultaneously in April — the cleanest, most extreme peak convergence in the energy complex. This is both the year's highest-conviction LONG (early April) AND its highest-conviction SHORT entry (peak of April). Do NOT miss this reversal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
THREE-WAY 100 PEAK → FLIP SHORT; cleanest peak in energy complex |
| May | BEAR | Orderly post-peak decline. All three TFs falling from April 100. 15-YR from ~80 to ~65. 35-YR from ~80 to ~65. 5-YR from ~70 to ~55–60. The driving season is fully priced in April; May is the seasonal unwinding. Short bias throughout. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — orderly decline from April peak; driving-season pricing complete |
| June | BEAR | Continued seasonal decline from the April peak. 35-YR falls from ~65 to ~60. 15-YR from ~65 to ~60. 5-YR from ~55 to ~45–50. The summer gasoline bear continues as the driving season premium fades. July 5-YR annual low approaching. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — continued summer bear; all TFs declining toward July low |
| July | CHOP | 5-YR hits its annual low (~25) in July — extreme short-term weakness. 35-YR and 15-YR however are broadly flat around 60–65, providing a supportive backdrop. The end-of-summer dynamic creates mixed TF signals. Not a high-conviction period. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
MIXED — 5-YR annual low (~25); 35-YR and 15-YR broadly flat |
| August | CHOP | End of driving season creates a broadly flat/choppy seasonal for all TFs. 35-YR and 15-YR hover around 60–65. 5-YR recovering slightly from July lows. No strong directional bias — this is the 'death zone' before the October-December seasonal bear. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓ |
CHOP — end-of-driving-season sideways; 35-YR and 15-YR flat |
| September | BEAR | Autumn bear acceleration. All three TFs declining from their summer flat zone toward October's extreme lows. 35-YR from ~60 toward ~30–35. 15-YR from ~60 toward ~40. This is the entry for the extended autumn-winter short position. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — autumn bear acceleration begins; all TFs declining |
| October | BEAR | THE most extreme autumn sell in gasoline. 35-YR CRASHES to near 0 in October — the year's annual low for the long-term seasonal. 15-YR falls to ~30–35. 5-YR also near ~35–40. This is the most extreme single-month seasonal collapse in the energy complex after April's three-way peak. Maximum short conviction. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — 35-YR CRASHES to near 0; highest-conviction short of H2 |
| November | BEAR | Continued extended bear. 35-YR at very low levels (15–25). 15-YR at ~25–30. 5-YR at ~25–30. All three declining or flat near annual lows. The winter driving season is no match for the post-driving-season structural seasonal weakness. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — extended autumn bear; 35-YR at very low levels |
| December | BEAR | 35-YR continues its late-year decline, touching near 0 in mid-December before a slight recovery. This is one of the most bearish year-end seasonals in the complex. Year ends with 35-YR=29.5, 15-YR=41.59, 5-YR=37.04 — all well below mid-range. Winter is the weakest structural period for gasoline. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
BEAR — 35-YR near 0 mid-Dec; year ends at 29.5/41.59/37.04 |