NZD / USD — Seasonal Analysis

Click any month row to expand week-by-week breakdown. Current month opens automatically.

Month	Bias	Overview	Weekly Detail	Notes
January	BEAR	Spikes to ~100 at Jan 1 open then collapses immediately. Full waterfall all month.	Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	Sell the Jan 1 spike. No longs all month.
February	BEAR	Continuing waterfall from Jan collapse. Approaching seasonal trough.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ~	Late Feb stabilising — watch for Mar trough and turn.
March	FLIP	Bottoms Wk1–2. Recovery follows sharply Wk3–4 as all TFs inflect upward.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	5-YR trough and turn — flip long Wk3 on confirmation.
April	BULL	Rising strongly. Building toward May peak. All-month long bias.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	Hold longs all Apr. May peak is the target.
May	BEAR	5-YR peaks Wk1 (~85–90) then collapses. Full waterfall Wk2–4.	Wk1 ↑ Peak Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓	Take Wk1 long then flip short hard Wk2. Critical month.
June	BEAR	Near absolute annual lows. Depressed and declining all month.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~	Hold shorts from May. Late Jun trough watch.
July	CHOP	5-YR bounce muted vs 15-YR. Choppy with brief Wk2 lift only.	Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~	Wk2 short-term long only. No sustained trend on 5-YR.
Aug – Sep	BULL → FLIP	5-YR recovers through Aug. Peaks early Sep then rolls over — first TF to top.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	5-YR peaks before 15-YR and 23-YR. Use as early flip warning.
Oct – Nov	BEAR	Post-Sep waterfall. 5-YR declining toward Nov lows. Late Nov base begins.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑	Hold shorts Oct. Late Nov Wk4 — enter long for Dec rally.
December	BULL	Strong year-end recovery. All-month long with 23-YR surging to ~95–100.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ Peak	Hold longs through Dec 31. Year-end peak on 23-YR.

Month	Bias	Overview	Weekly Detail	Notes
January	BEAR	Declining from year-end highs. Full bear month.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	Hold shorts all Jan. No long bias.
February	BEAR	Lower ~30–35. Approaching trough with 23-YR.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ~	Late Feb near trough. Watch for Mar reversal.
March	BULL	Bottoms with 23-YR Wk1–2. Sharp recovery follows Wk3–4.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	Flip long Wk2–3 with trough confirmation.
April	BULL	Rising strongly toward May peak. Strongest 15-YR uptrend window.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	15-YR in strong uptrend all Apr. High conviction long.
May	BEAR	PEAKS ~100 Wk1. Catastrophic reversal Wk2 — most critical flip signal on 15-YR.	Wk1 ↑ Peak Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓	15-YR peak ~100 Wk1 May — flip short hard Wk2.
June	BEAR	Declining post-May. Deep waterfall. Near lows all month.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ~	Hold shorts. Late Jun possible base — watch for Jul bounce.
July	SHARP BOUNCE	15-YR shows sharp bounce in Jul ~55–70. Counter-trend rally — notable long trade.	Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓	Take profit on shorts early Jul. Significant bounce — long Wk1–2.
August	BULL	Recovery continues after Jul consolidation. Building toward Sep peak.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	15-YR recovering all Aug. Re-enter long after Jul consolidation.
September	FLIP	PEAKS ~80–85 mid-Sep. Flip short signal — second most critical flip of the year.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Peak Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓	Peak mid-Sep — flip short Wk3 immediately.
October	BEAR	Sharp decline post-Sep peak. Full waterfall.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	Hold shorts. No bounce expected on 15-YR.
November	BEAR	Continued decline. Near seasonal lows. Late Nov turn begins.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑	Late Nov Wk4 — 15-YR turns up. Enter long for Dec year-end.
December	BULL	Strong year-end recovery. Rising with 23-YR toward year-close highs.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	All-month long. Hold into year close.

Month	Bias	Overview	Weekly Detail	Notes
January	BEAR	Opens ~65–70 (near year-end highs) and declines all month. Structural bear.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	No long bias. Structural bear all Jan.
February	BEAR	Continues lower toward ~35–40. Near absolute trough late Feb.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	Approaching absolute trough. Hold shorts.
March	FLIP	ANNUAL TROUGH ~25–30 Wk1–2. Sharp reversal follows — 23-YR leads the recovery.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	23-YR hits absolute annual low Wk1–2. Flip long Wk2–3.
April	BULL	Rising from Mar trough. Recovery building all month.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	All-month long on 23-YR. Building toward May peak.
May	BEAR	PEAKS ~85–90 Wk1–2 then full reversal. Most critical month — all TFs flip.	Wk1 ↑ Near Peak Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓	23-YR peak Wk1–2 May. Highest conviction short of year from Wk2.
June	BEAR	Declining to seasonal trough ~20–25. Deep waterfall.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	Hold shorts from May flip. Near absolute annual low.
July	RECOVERY	Recovery from Jun trough. Rising ~45–60. Supports counter-trend long trade.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~	23-YR recovering Jul. Take the Wk1–2 long trade.
August	BULL	Continued recovery. Rising toward Sep secondary peak ~80–85.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	23-YR in recovery all Aug. Hold longs into Sep.
September	BULL → FLIP	SECONDARY PEAK ~80–85 mid-Sep. Strong up then sharp reversal Wk3.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Peak Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	Peak mid-Sep on 23-YR. Flip short Wk3 — high conviction.
October	BEAR	Post-Sep decline. Sharp waterfall from peak.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	Full waterfall all Oct. Hold all shorts.
November	BEAR	Near lows ~35–40. Continued decline until very late Nov when 23-YR inflects decisively.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑	Nov Wk4 is the entry for the Dec year-end surge. Do not miss it.
December	BULL	ABSOLUTE ANNUAL PEAK ~95–100 at Dec 31. Strongest seasonal of the year. Year-end surge.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ Peak	23-YR rockets to ~95–100 by Dec 31. Maximum seasonal tailwind. Hold all month.

Seasonal data source: Moore Research Center © 2020 · New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) CME Futures · 23-Year Seasonal (1997–2019) · 15-Year · 5-Year overlays.
This analysis is based on historical seasonal tendencies only and does not constitute financial advice. Past seasonals do not guarantee future performance. © 2026 Kaminari Precision Trading. All rights reserved. · Dashboard interface design and analysis framework by Kaminari Precision Trading. Seasonal tendency data sourced from Moore Research Center.