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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 30-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | CRITICAL DIFFERENCE: Natural gas STARTS the year at annual highs (5-YR ~70, 15-YR ~75, 30-YR ~55). The seasonal trade is an IMMEDIATE SELL from January 1. This is the exact inverse of crude oil and the most important structural feature of the NG seasonal. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SELL — year opens at seasonal HIGHS; opposite of crude |
| February | CHOP | 30-YR hits its annual low near 5 in early February. All three TFs near 0. The crash from January highs is complete. Basing action begins mid-month. Not a high-conviction entry either direction — wait for March signal. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
TROUGH — 30-YR annual low ~5; transition from H1 bear to base |
| March | BULL | Gradual recovery from February lows. 30-YR recovers from ~5 to ~20–25. 15-YR from ~15 to ~25. 5-YR leading but at modest levels. No sustained bull signal yet — NG spring recovery is slow compared to crude. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
CHOP — gradual recovery, low conviction; watch for 15-YR confirmation |
| April | CHOP | April is a consolidation month. TFs broadly choppy around 25–35. Pre-injection season dynamics create mixed signals. Not a high-conviction period for NG — stay flat and watch for the May 15-YR spike opportunity. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — consolidation before May injection-demand spike |
| May | BULL | 15-YR has a distinctive injection-season spike to ~80–85 in May. 30-YR also rises to ~35–45. 5-YR more volatile. This is driven by early summer injection demand dynamics. The move can be sharp but fades quickly — it's NOT the H2 bull; it's a seasonal trading opportunity. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓ |
INJECTION SPIKE — 15-YR surges to ~80–85 (storage demand) |
| June | BEAR | All three TFs declining toward July's absolute annual trough. 15-YR falls from ~80 to ~30–35. 30-YR from ~35–45 to ~20. 5-YR also falling. The summer injection surplus overwhelms seasonal demand. Short bias. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
BEAR — summer injection flood; all TFs heading to July absolute trough |
| July | BEAR | ABSOLUTE ANNUAL TROUGH. All three TFs crash to near 0 — the lowest point of the entire year. This is THE most bearish seasonal moment for natural gas. However, with all TFs already at 0, the downside is exhausted. Late July begins the setup for the H2 bull. Avoid new shorts at 0. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
ABSOLUTE TROUGH — all TFs near 0; NO EDGE; watch for late reversal |
| August | BULL | The H2 winter heating demand seasonal begins in August. All three TFs rising from July trough. 30-YR from ~5 to ~25–30. 15-YR from near 0 to ~20–25. 5-YR also recovering. This is the early-entry phase of the major H2 bull that peaks in November. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 heating season bull begins; build position |
| September | BULL | September is the KEY ENTRY MONTH for the NG winter heating bull. 30-YR and 15-YR surge toward their November peak. 5-YR also strongly bullish. This is the highest-conviction long period of H2 — full TF alignment driving toward November 100. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — primary H2 bull acceleration; 30-YR surges toward 100 |
| October | BULL | October is a continuation of the September surge. 30-YR and 15-YR both approaching 100 — winter heating demand in full force. 5-YR also strongly bullish. Hold full position into November peak. This is a 5★ hold. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 surge continues; all three TFs rushing toward 100 |
| November | CHOP | THE DEFINING SEASONAL MOMENT for natural gas. All three TFs (30-YR, 15-YR, 5-YR) converge at 100 simultaneously in November — the annual peak. This is also the most extreme REVERSAL setup in the NG seasonal: immediately after the 100 confluence, ALL THREE crash sharply. Exit longs and flip short at the November peak. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
ANNUAL PEAK — ALL THREE TFs AT 100 SIMULTANEOUSLY; then SHARP REVERSAL |
| December | BEAR | The December crash from November's 100 peak is the year's final seasonal trade. 30-YR falls from ~100 to ~43.96. 15-YR falls to ~45.1. 5-YR to ~27.82. All three declining sharply. The bear is broad and sustained, ending the year exactly where the seasonal data suggests — mid-range, well below November's highs. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — sharp crash from November peak; 30-YR falls to ~44 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | CRITICAL DIFFERENCE: Natural gas STARTS the year at annual highs (5-YR ~70, 15-YR ~75, 30-YR ~55). The seasonal trade is an IMMEDIATE SELL from January 1. This is the exact inverse of crude oil and the most important structural feature of the NG seasonal. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SELL — year opens at seasonal HIGHS; opposite of crude |
| February | CHOP | 30-YR hits its annual low near 5 in early February. All three TFs near 0. The crash from January highs is complete. Basing action begins mid-month. Not a high-conviction entry either direction — wait for March signal. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
TROUGH — 30-YR annual low ~5; transition from H1 bear to base |
| March | CHOP | Gradual recovery from February lows. 30-YR recovers from ~5 to ~20–25. 15-YR from ~15 to ~25. 5-YR leading but at modest levels. No sustained bull signal yet — NG spring recovery is slow compared to crude. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
CHOP — gradual recovery, low conviction; watch for 15-YR confirmation |
| April | CHOP | April is a consolidation month. TFs broadly choppy around 25–35. Pre-injection season dynamics create mixed signals. Not a high-conviction period for NG — stay flat and watch for the May 15-YR spike opportunity. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
CHOP — consolidation before May injection-demand spike |
| May | BULL | 15-YR has a distinctive injection-season spike to ~80–85 in May. 30-YR also rises to ~35–45. 5-YR more volatile. This is driven by early summer injection demand dynamics. The move can be sharp but fades quickly — it's NOT the H2 bull; it's a seasonal trading opportunity. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓ |
INJECTION SPIKE — 15-YR surges to ~80–85 (storage demand) |
| June | BEAR | All three TFs declining toward July's absolute annual trough. 15-YR falls from ~80 to ~30–35. 30-YR from ~35–45 to ~20. 5-YR also falling. The summer injection surplus overwhelms seasonal demand. Short bias. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
BEAR — summer injection flood; all TFs heading to July absolute trough |
| July | BEAR | ABSOLUTE ANNUAL TROUGH. All three TFs crash to near 0 — the lowest point of the entire year. This is THE most bearish seasonal moment for natural gas. However, with all TFs already at 0, the downside is exhausted. Late July begins the setup for the H2 bull. Avoid new shorts at 0. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
ABSOLUTE TROUGH — all TFs near 0; NO EDGE; watch for late reversal |
| August | BULL | The H2 winter heating demand seasonal begins in August. All three TFs rising from July trough. 30-YR from ~5 to ~25–30. 15-YR from near 0 to ~20–25. 5-YR also recovering. This is the early-entry phase of the major H2 bull that peaks in November. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 heating season bull begins; build position |
| September | BULL | September is the KEY ENTRY MONTH for the NG winter heating bull. 30-YR and 15-YR surge toward their November peak. 5-YR also strongly bullish. This is the highest-conviction long period of H2 — full TF alignment driving toward November 100. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — primary H2 bull acceleration; 30-YR surges toward 100 |
| October | BULL | October is a continuation of the September surge. 30-YR and 15-YR both approaching 100 — winter heating demand in full force. 5-YR also strongly bullish. Hold full position into November peak. This is a 5★ hold. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 surge continues; all three TFs rushing toward 100 |
| November | CHOP | THE DEFINING SEASONAL MOMENT for natural gas. All three TFs (30-YR, 15-YR, 5-YR) converge at 100 simultaneously in November — the annual peak. This is also the most extreme REVERSAL setup in the NG seasonal: immediately after the 100 confluence, ALL THREE crash sharply. Exit longs and flip short at the November peak. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
ANNUAL PEAK — ALL THREE TFs AT 100 SIMULTANEOUSLY; then SHARP REVERSAL |
| December | BEAR | The December crash from November's 100 peak is the year's final seasonal trade. 30-YR falls from ~100 to ~43.96. 15-YR falls to ~45.1. 5-YR to ~27.82. All three declining sharply. The bear is broad and sustained, ending the year exactly where the seasonal data suggests — mid-range, well below November's highs. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — sharp crash from November peak; 30-YR falls to ~44 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | CRITICAL DIFFERENCE: Natural gas STARTS the year at annual highs (5-YR ~70, 15-YR ~75, 30-YR ~55). The seasonal trade is an IMMEDIATE SELL from January 1. This is the exact inverse of crude oil and the most important structural feature of the NG seasonal. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SELL — year opens at seasonal HIGHS; opposite of crude |
| February | CHOP | 30-YR hits its annual low near 5 in early February. All three TFs near 0. The crash from January highs is complete. Basing action begins mid-month. Not a high-conviction entry either direction — wait for March signal. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
TROUGH — 30-YR annual low ~5; transition from H1 bear to base |
| March | CHOP | Gradual recovery from February lows. 30-YR recovers from ~5 to ~20–25. 15-YR from ~15 to ~25. 5-YR leading but at modest levels. No sustained bull signal yet — NG spring recovery is slow compared to crude. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
CHOP — gradual recovery, low conviction; watch for 15-YR confirmation |
| April | CHOP | April is a consolidation month. TFs broadly choppy around 25–35. Pre-injection season dynamics create mixed signals. Not a high-conviction period for NG — stay flat and watch for the May 15-YR spike opportunity. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — consolidation before May injection-demand spike |
| May | BULL | 15-YR has a distinctive injection-season spike to ~80–85 in May. 30-YR also rises to ~35–45. 5-YR more volatile. This is driven by early summer injection demand dynamics. The move can be sharp but fades quickly — it's NOT the H2 bull; it's a seasonal trading opportunity. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓ |
INJECTION SPIKE — 15-YR surges to ~80–85 (storage demand) |
| June | BEAR | All three TFs declining toward July's absolute annual trough. 15-YR falls from ~80 to ~30–35. 30-YR from ~35–45 to ~20. 5-YR also falling. The summer injection surplus overwhelms seasonal demand. Short bias. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
BEAR — summer injection flood; all TFs heading to July absolute trough |
| July | BEAR | ABSOLUTE ANNUAL TROUGH. All three TFs crash to near 0 — the lowest point of the entire year. This is THE most bearish seasonal moment for natural gas. However, with all TFs already at 0, the downside is exhausted. Late July begins the setup for the H2 bull. Avoid new shorts at 0. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
ABSOLUTE TROUGH — all TFs near 0; NO EDGE; watch for late reversal |
| August | BULL | The H2 winter heating demand seasonal begins in August. All three TFs rising from July trough. 30-YR from ~5 to ~25–30. 15-YR from near 0 to ~20–25. 5-YR also recovering. This is the early-entry phase of the major H2 bull that peaks in November. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 heating season bull begins; build position |
| September | BULL | September is the KEY ENTRY MONTH for the NG winter heating bull. 30-YR and 15-YR surge toward their November peak. 5-YR also strongly bullish. This is the highest-conviction long period of H2 — full TF alignment driving toward November 100. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — primary H2 bull acceleration; 30-YR surges toward 100 |
| October | BULL | October is a continuation of the September surge. 30-YR and 15-YR both approaching 100 — winter heating demand in full force. 5-YR also strongly bullish. Hold full position into November peak. This is a 5★ hold. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 surge continues; all three TFs rushing toward 100 |
| November | CHOP | THE DEFINING SEASONAL MOMENT for natural gas. All three TFs (30-YR, 15-YR, 5-YR) converge at 100 simultaneously in November — the annual peak. This is also the most extreme REVERSAL setup in the NG seasonal: immediately after the 100 confluence, ALL THREE crash sharply. Exit longs and flip short at the November peak. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
ANNUAL PEAK — ALL THREE TFs AT 100 SIMULTANEOUSLY; then SHARP REVERSAL |
| December | BEAR | The December crash from November's 100 peak is the year's final seasonal trade. 30-YR falls from ~100 to ~43.96. 15-YR falls to ~45.1. 5-YR to ~27.82. All three declining sharply. The bear is broad and sustained, ending the year exactly where the seasonal data suggests — mid-range, well below November's highs. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — sharp crash from November peak; 30-YR falls to ~44 |