MXN / USD — Seasonal Analysis

Month	Bias	Overview	Weekly Detail	Notes
January	CHOP → BULL	Choppy base-building from the mid-60s; drifts higher through the month, joining the broader turn late.	Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	Early-stage long bias building — confirmation comes by Wk4.
February	BULL	Climbs from the low-60s toward 75 — a steady, sustained uptrend all month.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	Hold longs — building toward the year's strongest rally window.
March	BULL — PEAK	Explosive rally — hits the absolute yearly peak near 95–100 by Wk2.	Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑ Peak Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	Yearly peak made here — first TF to top. Begin watching for the flip.
April	FLIP — ROLLING TOP	Stalls near its March highs then turns down decisively — first TF to flip short, leading the reversal.	Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓↓	Defining flip — 5-YR leads the rollover. Exit longs, flip short.
May	BEAR	Full waterfall continuation — sheds ~15–20 points toward the June trough.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓	Hold shorts — clean continuation of the April flip.
June	BEAR → TURN	Probes the mid-year trough near 33–38 then stages a sharp V-shaped rebound off the low.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Trough Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑	Cover shorts at the trough — turn confirms by Wk4.
July	BULL (counter-trend)	Strong rally off the June low pushes into the mid-70s before flattening late in the month.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~	Counter-trend long — take profits as momentum fades late month.
August	FLIP — SHARP REVERSAL	Already declining as 15-YR makes its secondary peak — leads the next leg sharply lower.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓	5-YR leads 15-YR's collapse lower — stay short.
September	CHOP	Choppy basing near 35–48; a modest bounce attempt mid-month fails to gain traction.	Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~	No clean edge — stand aside or trade the range cautiously.
October	WEAK BOUNCE → FAIL	Pushes higher off the September base early, but the bounce stalls and fails outright by Wk4.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓↓	Fade the bounce — Wk4 failure opens the door to November's collapse.
November	BEAR — HIGHEST CONVICTION	The sharpest, deepest decline of the year — collapses toward single digits across the board.	Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ~ Low	Highest-conviction short window of the year — hold through the capitulation low.
December	CHOP / BASE	Choppy, uneven bottoming process; drifts modestly higher to close the year near 19.	Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑	Directionless — cover remaining shorts into the new year's open.

Month	Bias	Overview	Weekly Detail	Notes
January	BULL	Steady climb from the mid-40s toward the low-60s — already trending higher at the open.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	Leads the early-year turn — first TF to confirm the long.
February	BULL	Continuation higher into the low-60s, tracking with 5-YR and 26-YR.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	Sustained alignment — hold longs into March.
March	BULL	Strong rally pushes into the high-70s/80s, converging with the other timeframes.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	Full alignment with 5-YR and 26-YR — high conviction long.
April	FLIP — ROLLOVER	Still rising early in the month, then rolls over mid-month as the broad rally tops out.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Peak Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓	Confirms the rolling top — the second TF to flip, mid-month.
May	BEAR	Sharp decline toward the mid-year trough near 38 — full alignment with 5-YR and 26-YR lower.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓	Hold shorts — broad waterfall confirmed across all TFs.
June	BEAR → TURN	Declines to the mid-year low near 38, then turns up sharply alongside the other timeframes.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Trough Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑	Cover shorts at the trough; the rebound here is the sharpest of the three TFs.
July	BULL — LEADING RALLY	Strongest counter-trend bounce of the three TFs — leads the charge toward its own secondary peak.	Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	The standout long trade of the year — 15-YR leads decisively.
August	SECONDARY PEAK → FLIP	SECONDARY YEARLY PEAK ~88–90 in Wk1 — even as 5-YR is already falling — then collapses violently toward the low-20s. The single sharpest reversal of MXN's year.	Wk1 ↑ Peak Wk2 ↓↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓	Defining divergence top — secondary peak collides with 5-YR's existing decline. Flip short hard.
September	CHOP	Slips toward the mid-30s/40s and consolidates — directionless after the August collapse.	Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑	Range-bound — wait for October's clearer signal.
October	WEAK BOUNCE → FAIL	Attempts a recovery early in the month but stalls and rolls back over by Wk4.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓↓	Fade the failed bounce — confirms the November setup.
November	BEAR — ANNUAL LOW	Collapses toward the annual low alongside 5-YR — among the steepest declines on the calendar.	Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ~ Low	Hold the short into the capitulation low alongside 5-YR.
December	CHOP → RECOVERY	Uneven recovery off the November floor; closes the year near 15.	Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑	Modest base-building — cover remaining shorts.

Month	Bias	Overview	Weekly Detail	Notes
January	CHOP	Opens near 50–65, choppy, with a brief dip toward 50 mid-month before turning up late.	Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑	Lags the other TFs early — confirmation comes late in the month.
February	BULL	Joins the broad rally, climbing from the 60s toward the 70s.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	Now aligned with 5-YR and 15-YR — broad confluence.
March	BULL	Continues climbing into the 80s–90s, converging with the shorter TFs near their peaks.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	Approaching its own absolute peak — building toward April's top.
April	BULL — ABSOLUTE PEAK	ABSOLUTE YEARLY PEAK ~100 reached mid-month — the last TF to top, confirming the rolling-top reversal already underway on 5-YR and 15-YR.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Peak Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓↓	The long-term confirms the top right as the shorter TFs are already falling — definitive flip signal.
May	BEAR	Declines toward the mid-year trough near 33–38, alongside 5-YR and 15-YR.	Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ~	Confirms the broad waterfall — full three-TF alignment lower.
June	BEAR → TURN	Bottoms in the high-30s alongside the other timeframes, then turns up with the broad rebound.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Trough Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	Bottoms in step with 5-YR and 15-YR — confirms the mid-year low.
July	BULL — RECOVERY	Counter-trend recovery toward the high-70s/80s, tracking the broader bounce.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~	Solid counter-trend long — fades alongside the others late month.
August	BEAR — ROLLS OVER	Rolls over with 15-YR's secondary-peak collapse, declining from the high-70s toward the 40s.	Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓	Confirms 15-YR's reversal one week behind — broad alignment lower resumes.
September	BEAR — YEARLY LOW	Slips to its own yearly low near 28 — the weakest reading of any TF this month.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Low Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑	Marks its own low here — tentative turn begins late month.
October	CHOP — FAILS TO CONFIRM	Fails to confirm the 5-YR/15-YR bounce — stays capped near 30–37 all month.	Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓	The divergence here is the tell — the bounce on shorter TFs isn't trustworthy.
November	BEAR — SINGLE DIGITS	Declines into the single digits alongside the other timeframes — among the year's deepest readings.	Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ~ Low	Confirms the annual capitulation low alongside 5-YR and 15-YR.
December	CHOP — SPIKE & FADE	Stages a sharp but brief spike toward 28 early in the month, then fades to close the year near 8–9 — the lowest reading of any TF at year-end.	Wk1 ↑ Spike Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓	Don't chase the early-month spike — it fades into a weak close.