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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 25-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | Recovering from December's catastrophic crash. 25-YR at ~20–25 (depressed). 15-YR at ~30. 5-YR at near-0 after December crash. February annual low in sight. The milk seasonal begins the year at depressed levels and the annual low is in February. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
BEAR — post-December-crash lows; 5-YR near 0; 25-YR depressed |
| February | BEAR | ANNUAL LOW: All three TFs at their year's lowest point in February. 25-YR at ~15–20. 15-YR at ~20–25. 5-YR at near-0. Winter milk production cycle drives seasonal weakness. The September THREE-WAY peak of ~100 is the target from this February trough — a 100-point recovery. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
ANNUAL LOW — all TFs at year's lowest point; trough then recovery |
| March | BULL | Strong recovery from February annual low. 25-YR from ~15 to ~35. 15-YR from ~20 to ~40. 5-YR from near-0 to ~20. The spring flush period — increased milk production but forward demand premium builds. Hold longs from February through September. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — recovery from February trough; all TFs recovering strongly |
| April | BULL | Spring bull continuation. 25-YR from ~35 to ~50. 15-YR from ~40 to ~55. 5-YR from ~20 to ~35. The extended bull from February through September is one of the longest sustained directional moves in the dairy complex. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — spring bull; all TFs recovering toward mid-range |
| May | BULL | Bull acceleration. 25-YR from ~50 to ~65. 15-YR from ~55 to ~70. 5-YR from ~35 to ~55. Cheese and butter demand builds into summer. September three-way peak is approaching. Hold longs. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — bull acceleration; all TFs heading toward June-September peak zone |
| June | BULL | 25-YR from ~65 to ~80. 15-YR from ~70 to ~85. 5-YR from ~55 to ~70. All three TFs approaching high territory. September's three-way simultaneous peak of ~100 is the seasonal target. Hold all longs. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — strong bull; all TFs approaching 80+; September 100 loading |
| July | BULL | Final surge toward September three-way peak. 25-YR from ~80 to ~90. 15-YR from ~85 to ~95. 5-YR from ~70 to ~85. All three TFs approach 100. The September exit is one month away. Hold maximum longs. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — final surge to September peak; all TFs at 85–90 |
| August | BULL | All three TFs at or approaching 100. The seasonal high is very close. 25-YR at ~95+. 15-YR at ~95+. 5-YR at ~90+. Hold longs — the September simultaneous three-way peak is the exit. Don't exit early in August; hold for the September signal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — at peak zone; all TFs near 100; hold for September exit |
| September | BULL | THE defining seasonal event in Class III Milk. ALL THREE TFs simultaneously hit 100 in September — the year's absolute peak. Then THE CATASTROPHIC CRASH begins. 5-YR crashes from 100 to 5.99 at year-end (essentially 0). 25-YR falls from 100 to 18.63. 15-YR falls from 100 to 26.41. EXIT ALL LONGS at September peak; FLIP SHORT aggressively. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
THREE-WAY 100 → CATASTROPHIC CRASH; December 5-YR = 5.99 |
| October | BEAR | Catastrophic crash continues. 5-YR from ~80 to ~30. 25-YR from ~80 to ~50. 15-YR from ~80 to ~55. December's 5-YR=5.99 target is in sight. The post-September collapse is one of the most extreme seasonal moves in the agricultural complex. Hold shorts. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — catastrophic crash continues; 5-YR heading to near 0 |
| November | BEAR | Final crash leg. 5-YR from ~30 to ~10. 25-YR from ~50 to ~25. 15-YR from ~55 to ~30. December's catastrophic year-end close is imminent. Hold shorts into December. 5-YR at 5.99 by year-end is one of the most extreme reference values in the entire dataset. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — crash final leg; 5-YR heading to near 0 |
| December | BEAR | YEAR-END CATASTROPHIC CLOSE. 5-YR=5.99 — essentially 0. This is the most extreme year-end reference value in the entire seasonal dataset. 25-YR=18.63. 15-YR=26.41. The milk seasonal year ends in collapse. February will be the annual low (all TFs at ~15–20), and then the entire 100-point recovery begins again. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
YEAR-END CATASTROPHE — 5-YR=5.99 (essentially 0); 25-YR=18.63; 15-YR=26.41 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | CHOP | Recovering from December's catastrophic crash. 25-YR at ~20–25 (depressed). 15-YR at ~30. 5-YR at near-0 after December crash. February annual low in sight. The milk seasonal begins the year at depressed levels and the annual low is in February. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
BEAR — post-December-crash lows; 5-YR near 0; 25-YR depressed |
| February | BEAR | ANNUAL LOW: All three TFs at their year's lowest point in February. 25-YR at ~15–20. 15-YR at ~20–25. 5-YR at near-0. Winter milk production cycle drives seasonal weakness. The September THREE-WAY peak of ~100 is the target from this February trough — a 100-point recovery. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
ANNUAL LOW — all TFs at year's lowest point; trough then recovery |
| March | BULL | Strong recovery from February annual low. 25-YR from ~15 to ~35. 15-YR from ~20 to ~40. 5-YR from near-0 to ~20. The spring flush period — increased milk production but forward demand premium builds. Hold longs from February through September. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — recovery from February trough; all TFs recovering strongly |
| April | BULL | Spring bull continuation. 25-YR from ~35 to ~50. 15-YR from ~40 to ~55. 5-YR from ~20 to ~35. The extended bull from February through September is one of the longest sustained directional moves in the dairy complex. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — spring bull; all TFs recovering toward mid-range |
| May | BULL | Bull acceleration. 25-YR from ~50 to ~65. 15-YR from ~55 to ~70. 5-YR from ~35 to ~55. Cheese and butter demand builds into summer. September three-way peak is approaching. Hold longs. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — bull acceleration; all TFs heading toward June-September peak zone |
| June | BULL | 25-YR from ~65 to ~80. 15-YR from ~70 to ~85. 5-YR from ~55 to ~70. All three TFs approaching high territory. September's three-way simultaneous peak of ~100 is the seasonal target. Hold all longs. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — strong bull; all TFs approaching 80+; September 100 loading |
| July | BULL | Final surge toward September three-way peak. 25-YR from ~80 to ~90. 15-YR from ~85 to ~95. 5-YR from ~70 to ~85. All three TFs approach 100. The September exit is one month away. Hold maximum longs. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — final surge to September peak; all TFs at 85–90 |
| August | BULL | All three TFs at or approaching 100. The seasonal high is very close. 25-YR at ~95+. 15-YR at ~95+. 5-YR at ~90+. Hold longs — the September simultaneous three-way peak is the exit. Don't exit early in August; hold for the September signal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — at peak zone; all TFs near 100; hold for September exit |
| September | BULL | THE defining seasonal event in Class III Milk. ALL THREE TFs simultaneously hit 100 in September — the year's absolute peak. Then THE CATASTROPHIC CRASH begins. 5-YR crashes from 100 to 5.99 at year-end (essentially 0). 25-YR falls from 100 to 18.63. 15-YR falls from 100 to 26.41. EXIT ALL LONGS at September peak; FLIP SHORT aggressively. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
THREE-WAY 100 → CATASTROPHIC CRASH; December 5-YR = 5.99 |
| October | BEAR | Catastrophic crash continues. 5-YR from ~80 to ~30. 25-YR from ~80 to ~50. 15-YR from ~80 to ~55. December's 5-YR=5.99 target is in sight. The post-September collapse is one of the most extreme seasonal moves in the agricultural complex. Hold shorts. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — catastrophic crash continues; 5-YR heading to near 0 |
| November | BEAR | Final crash leg. 5-YR from ~30 to ~10. 25-YR from ~50 to ~25. 15-YR from ~55 to ~30. December's catastrophic year-end close is imminent. Hold shorts into December. 5-YR at 5.99 by year-end is one of the most extreme reference values in the entire dataset. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — crash final leg; 5-YR heading to near 0 |
| December | BEAR | YEAR-END CATASTROPHIC CLOSE. 5-YR=5.99 — essentially 0. This is the most extreme year-end reference value in the entire seasonal dataset. 25-YR=18.63. 15-YR=26.41. The milk seasonal year ends in collapse. February will be the annual low (all TFs at ~15–20), and then the entire 100-point recovery begins again. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
YEAR-END CATASTROPHE — 5-YR=5.99 (essentially 0); 25-YR=18.63; 15-YR=26.41 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | Recovering from December's catastrophic crash. 25-YR at ~20–25 (depressed). 15-YR at ~30. 5-YR at near-0 after December crash. February annual low in sight. The milk seasonal begins the year at depressed levels and the annual low is in February. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
BEAR — post-December-crash lows; 5-YR near 0; 25-YR depressed |
| February | BEAR | ANNUAL LOW: All three TFs at their year's lowest point in February. 25-YR at ~15–20. 15-YR at ~20–25. 5-YR at near-0. Winter milk production cycle drives seasonal weakness. The September THREE-WAY peak of ~100 is the target from this February trough — a 100-point recovery. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
ANNUAL LOW — all TFs at year's lowest point; trough then recovery |
| March | BULL | Strong recovery from February annual low. 25-YR from ~15 to ~35. 15-YR from ~20 to ~40. 5-YR from near-0 to ~20. The spring flush period — increased milk production but forward demand premium builds. Hold longs from February through September. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — recovery from February trough; all TFs recovering strongly |
| April | BULL | Spring bull continuation. 25-YR from ~35 to ~50. 15-YR from ~40 to ~55. 5-YR from ~20 to ~35. The extended bull from February through September is one of the longest sustained directional moves in the dairy complex. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — spring bull; all TFs recovering toward mid-range |
| May | BULL | Bull acceleration. 25-YR from ~50 to ~65. 15-YR from ~55 to ~70. 5-YR from ~35 to ~55. Cheese and butter demand builds into summer. September three-way peak is approaching. Hold longs. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — bull acceleration; all TFs heading toward June-September peak zone |
| June | BULL | 25-YR from ~65 to ~80. 15-YR from ~70 to ~85. 5-YR from ~55 to ~70. All three TFs approaching high territory. September's three-way simultaneous peak of ~100 is the seasonal target. Hold all longs. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — strong bull; all TFs approaching 80+; September 100 loading |
| July | BULL | Final surge toward September three-way peak. 25-YR from ~80 to ~90. 15-YR from ~85 to ~95. 5-YR from ~70 to ~85. All three TFs approach 100. The September exit is one month away. Hold maximum longs. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — final surge to September peak; all TFs at 85–90 |
| August | BULL | All three TFs at or approaching 100. The seasonal high is very close. 25-YR at ~95+. 15-YR at ~95+. 5-YR at ~90+. Hold longs — the September simultaneous three-way peak is the exit. Don't exit early in August; hold for the September signal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — at peak zone; all TFs near 100; hold for September exit |
| September | BULL | THE defining seasonal event in Class III Milk. ALL THREE TFs simultaneously hit 100 in September — the year's absolute peak. Then THE CATASTROPHIC CRASH begins. 5-YR crashes from 100 to 5.99 at year-end (essentially 0). 25-YR falls from 100 to 18.63. 15-YR falls from 100 to 26.41. EXIT ALL LONGS at September peak; FLIP SHORT aggressively. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
THREE-WAY 100 → CATASTROPHIC CRASH; December 5-YR = 5.99 |
| October | BEAR | Catastrophic crash continues. 5-YR from ~80 to ~30. 25-YR from ~80 to ~50. 15-YR from ~80 to ~55. December's 5-YR=5.99 target is in sight. The post-September collapse is one of the most extreme seasonal moves in the agricultural complex. Hold shorts. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — catastrophic crash continues; 5-YR heading to near 0 |
| November | BEAR | Final crash leg. 5-YR from ~30 to ~10. 25-YR from ~50 to ~25. 15-YR from ~55 to ~30. December's catastrophic year-end close is imminent. Hold shorts into December. 5-YR at 5.99 by year-end is one of the most extreme reference values in the entire dataset. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — crash final leg; 5-YR heading to near 0 |
| December | BEAR | YEAR-END CATASTROPHIC CLOSE. 5-YR=5.99 — essentially 0. This is the most extreme year-end reference value in the entire seasonal dataset. 25-YR=18.63. 15-YR=26.41. The milk seasonal year ends in collapse. February will be the annual low (all TFs at ~15–20), and then the entire 100-point recovery begins again. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
YEAR-END CATASTROPHE — 5-YR=5.99 (essentially 0); 25-YR=18.63; 15-YR=26.41 |