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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 40-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | OPPOSITE of most commodities: 40-YR begins the year at ~90 and 15-YR near ~90 — these are the ANNUAL HIGHS. 5-YR starts lower (~50) and continues declining. The January sell-from-highs setup is the most unique feature of lumber's seasonal — a year-start short, not a long. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — 40-YR and 15-YR start at annual highs; immediate SELL |
| February | BEAR | 40-YR declining from ~90 to ~70. 15-YR declining from ~90 to ~70. 5-YR weak around ~40–45. Post-winter-peak bear in full force. The housing/construction demand has peaked going into winter and lumber begins pricing in the shoulder-season slowdown. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — post-peak bear continues; 40-YR declining from 90 |
| March | CHOP | 40-YR continuing to decline to ~60. 15-YR stabilizing around ~60–65. 5-YR beginning to base around ~45. Mixed signals as the spring construction season approaches but the long-term bear continues. Not a clean entry month. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
CHOP — 40-YR continuing down; 5-YR and 15-YR stabilizing |
| April | BULL | 40-YR falls to ~50. 15-YR at ~55. 5-YR begins recovering to ~55. Divergence month — 5-YR picking up spring construction momentum while 40-YR long-term bear continues. No clean combined signal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
CHOP — 5-YR begins spring surge; 40-YR and 15-YR flat/declining |
| May | BULL | 5-YR recovering strongly toward ~65–70. 15-YR recovering to ~60. 40-YR flat/recovering around ~50–55. Spring construction season drives near-term TFs. Begin scaling into longs — June 5-YR spike to 100 approaching. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 5-YR spring surge; 15-YR recovering; 40-YR flat |
| June | BULL | THE defining June move: 5-YR spikes to NEAR 100 — the annual high for the near-term timeframe. 15-YR at ~80. 40-YR recovering to ~65–70. Spring/summer construction season at full throttle. EXIT LONGS by mid-June before the September trough sets up. The peak is sharp and fast. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
PEAK — 5-YR SPIKES TO 100; exit June; September trough incoming |
| July | BEAR | All TFs declining post-peak. 5-YR falling from ~100 to ~55. 40-YR falling from ~65 to ~45. 15-YR falling from ~80 to ~55. Summer construction ends and the seasonal bear accelerates. September will mark the annual low for all three TFs. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — post-June-peak bear; all TFs declining toward September trough |
| August | BEAR | Continued decline toward September's near-0 trough. 5-YR to ~30. 15-YR to ~30. 40-YR to ~25–30. The construction season is fully priced, lumber inventory builds, and mills cut prices. Short bias throughout with trough expected in September. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — all TFs declining toward September annual low |
| September | BEAR | ALL THREE TFs reach near 0 simultaneously in September — the annual low for all timeframes. 5-YR to ~5–10. 15-YR to ~5–10. 40-YR to ~5–10. This is the year's floor. Do not add new shorts here; the October-December recovery will be explosive from these levels. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
ANNUAL TROUGH — all three TFs near 0; year's lowest point |
| October | BULL | Strong October recovery from September near-0 trough. All three TFs surge from ~5 to ~35–45. 5-YR to ~40. 15-YR to ~45. 40-YR to ~40. The pre-winter construction demand and mill restocking drives the seasonal rebound. Hold longs through December. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — explosive recovery from September trough; all TFs surging |
| November | BULL | Recovery continuation. 5-YR approaches ~60–65. 15-YR approaches ~55–60. 40-YR approaches ~55. December targets: 40-YR=61.47, 15-YR=64.03, 5-YR=73.42. Hold longs built in October. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — recovery continues; all TFs heading to year-end reference |
| December | BULL | Year-end recovery completes and extends toward annual highs. 40-YR=61.47 (reference). 15-YR=64.03 (reference). 5-YR=73.42 — approaching the annual high zone that was the January start point. December buyers hold into the January SELL setup. The lumber cycle completes: Jan high → Sep trough → Dec high again. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG → YEAR-END HIGH; 5-YR=73.42 near annual high; hold into Jan top |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | OPPOSITE of most commodities: 40-YR begins the year at ~90 and 15-YR near ~90 — these are the ANNUAL HIGHS. 5-YR starts lower (~50) and continues declining. The January sell-from-highs setup is the most unique feature of lumber's seasonal — a year-start short, not a long. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — 40-YR and 15-YR start at annual highs; immediate SELL |
| February | BEAR | 40-YR declining from ~90 to ~70. 15-YR declining from ~90 to ~70. 5-YR weak around ~40–45. Post-winter-peak bear in full force. The housing/construction demand has peaked going into winter and lumber begins pricing in the shoulder-season slowdown. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — post-peak bear continues; 40-YR declining from 90 |
| March | CHOP | 40-YR continuing to decline to ~60. 15-YR stabilizing around ~60–65. 5-YR beginning to base around ~45. Mixed signals as the spring construction season approaches but the long-term bear continues. Not a clean entry month. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — 40-YR continuing down; 5-YR and 15-YR stabilizing |
| April | CHOP | 40-YR falls to ~50. 15-YR at ~55. 5-YR begins recovering to ~55. Divergence month — 5-YR picking up spring construction momentum while 40-YR long-term bear continues. No clean combined signal. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
CHOP — 5-YR begins spring surge; 40-YR and 15-YR flat/declining |
| May | BULL | 5-YR recovering strongly toward ~65–70. 15-YR recovering to ~60. 40-YR flat/recovering around ~50–55. Spring construction season drives near-term TFs. Begin scaling into longs — June 5-YR spike to 100 approaching. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 5-YR spring surge; 15-YR recovering; 40-YR flat |
| June | BULL | THE defining June move: 5-YR spikes to NEAR 100 — the annual high for the near-term timeframe. 15-YR at ~80. 40-YR recovering to ~65–70. Spring/summer construction season at full throttle. EXIT LONGS by mid-June before the September trough sets up. The peak is sharp and fast. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
PEAK — 5-YR SPIKES TO 100; exit June; September trough incoming |
| July | BEAR | All TFs declining post-peak. 5-YR falling from ~100 to ~55. 40-YR falling from ~65 to ~45. 15-YR falling from ~80 to ~55. Summer construction ends and the seasonal bear accelerates. September will mark the annual low for all three TFs. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — post-June-peak bear; all TFs declining toward September trough |
| August | BEAR | Continued decline toward September's near-0 trough. 5-YR to ~30. 15-YR to ~30. 40-YR to ~25–30. The construction season is fully priced, lumber inventory builds, and mills cut prices. Short bias throughout with trough expected in September. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — all TFs declining toward September annual low |
| September | BEAR | ALL THREE TFs reach near 0 simultaneously in September — the annual low for all timeframes. 5-YR to ~5–10. 15-YR to ~5–10. 40-YR to ~5–10. This is the year's floor. Do not add new shorts here; the October-December recovery will be explosive from these levels. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
ANNUAL TROUGH — all three TFs near 0; year's lowest point |
| October | BULL | Strong October recovery from September near-0 trough. All three TFs surge from ~5 to ~35–45. 5-YR to ~40. 15-YR to ~45. 40-YR to ~40. The pre-winter construction demand and mill restocking drives the seasonal rebound. Hold longs through December. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — explosive recovery from September trough; all TFs surging |
| November | BULL | Recovery continuation. 5-YR approaches ~60–65. 15-YR approaches ~55–60. 40-YR approaches ~55. December targets: 40-YR=61.47, 15-YR=64.03, 5-YR=73.42. Hold longs built in October. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — recovery continues; all TFs heading to year-end reference |
| December | BULL | Year-end recovery completes and extends toward annual highs. 40-YR=61.47 (reference). 15-YR=64.03 (reference). 5-YR=73.42 — approaching the annual high zone that was the January start point. December buyers hold into the January SELL setup. The lumber cycle completes: Jan high → Sep trough → Dec high again. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG → YEAR-END HIGH; 5-YR=73.42 near annual high; hold into Jan top |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | OPPOSITE of most commodities: 40-YR begins the year at ~90 and 15-YR near ~90 — these are the ANNUAL HIGHS. 5-YR starts lower (~50) and continues declining. The January sell-from-highs setup is the most unique feature of lumber's seasonal — a year-start short, not a long. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — 40-YR and 15-YR start at annual highs; immediate SELL |
| February | BEAR | 40-YR declining from ~90 to ~70. 15-YR declining from ~90 to ~70. 5-YR weak around ~40–45. Post-winter-peak bear in full force. The housing/construction demand has peaked going into winter and lumber begins pricing in the shoulder-season slowdown. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — post-peak bear continues; 40-YR declining from 90 |
| March | BEAR | 40-YR continuing to decline to ~60. 15-YR stabilizing around ~60–65. 5-YR beginning to base around ~45. Mixed signals as the spring construction season approaches but the long-term bear continues. Not a clean entry month. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
CHOP — 40-YR continuing down; 5-YR and 15-YR stabilizing |
| April | BEAR | 40-YR falls to ~50. 15-YR at ~55. 5-YR begins recovering to ~55. Divergence month — 5-YR picking up spring construction momentum while 40-YR long-term bear continues. No clean combined signal. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — 5-YR begins spring surge; 40-YR and 15-YR flat/declining |
| May | CHOP | 5-YR recovering strongly toward ~65–70. 15-YR recovering to ~60. 40-YR flat/recovering around ~50–55. Spring construction season drives near-term TFs. Begin scaling into longs — June 5-YR spike to 100 approaching. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 5-YR spring surge; 15-YR recovering; 40-YR flat |
| June | BULL | THE defining June move: 5-YR spikes to NEAR 100 — the annual high for the near-term timeframe. 15-YR at ~80. 40-YR recovering to ~65–70. Spring/summer construction season at full throttle. EXIT LONGS by mid-June before the September trough sets up. The peak is sharp and fast. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
PEAK — 5-YR SPIKES TO 100; exit June; September trough incoming |
| July | BEAR | All TFs declining post-peak. 5-YR falling from ~100 to ~55. 40-YR falling from ~65 to ~45. 15-YR falling from ~80 to ~55. Summer construction ends and the seasonal bear accelerates. September will mark the annual low for all three TFs. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — post-June-peak bear; all TFs declining toward September trough |
| August | BEAR | Continued decline toward September's near-0 trough. 5-YR to ~30. 15-YR to ~30. 40-YR to ~25–30. The construction season is fully priced, lumber inventory builds, and mills cut prices. Short bias throughout with trough expected in September. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — all TFs declining toward September annual low |
| September | BEAR | ALL THREE TFs reach near 0 simultaneously in September — the annual low for all timeframes. 5-YR to ~5–10. 15-YR to ~5–10. 40-YR to ~5–10. This is the year's floor. Do not add new shorts here; the October-December recovery will be explosive from these levels. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
ANNUAL TROUGH — all three TFs near 0; year's lowest point |
| October | BULL | Strong October recovery from September near-0 trough. All three TFs surge from ~5 to ~35–45. 5-YR to ~40. 15-YR to ~45. 40-YR to ~40. The pre-winter construction demand and mill restocking drives the seasonal rebound. Hold longs through December. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — explosive recovery from September trough; all TFs surging |
| November | BULL | Recovery continuation. 5-YR approaches ~60–65. 15-YR approaches ~55–60. 40-YR approaches ~55. December targets: 40-YR=61.47, 15-YR=64.03, 5-YR=73.42. Hold longs built in October. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — recovery continues; all TFs heading to year-end reference |
| December | BULL | Year-end recovery completes and extends toward annual highs. 40-YR=61.47 (reference). 15-YR=64.03 (reference). 5-YR=73.42 — approaching the annual high zone that was the January start point. December buyers hold into the January SELL setup. The lumber cycle completes: Jan high → Sep trough → Dec high again. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG → YEAR-END HIGH; 5-YR=73.42 near annual high; hold into Jan top |