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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 40-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | ALL THREE TFs at depressed levels (~15–25). Lean hogs begins the year in the 'dead zone' — flat lows from January through March. No bull signal. No clean short either — it's already been sold. Avoid trading hogs in January. Worst seasonal window in the complex. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
DEAD ZONE — all TFs flat near low; Jan-Mar worst period in hogs |
| February | BEAR | Continuation of January's dead zone. ALL THREE TFs flat around 15–25. No directional edge. The hog seasonal is binary — it is either in the dead zone (Jan-Mar and Jul-Dec) or at the annual high (Apr-Jun). February is deep dead zone. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
DEAD ZONE — flat low; avoid |
| March | BEAR | Dead zone continues through early-mid March. Then: THE STEP-UP. All three TFs move from ~15–25 to ~100 in a near-vertical move in late March. This is the most binary step-function in any commodity — from dead flat to annual high in days. BUY late March Wk3/Wk4. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
DEAD ZONE EXIT — late-March STEP-UP loading; buy late March |
| April | BULL | ALL THREE TFs at or near 100 in April — the annual high for all timeframes simultaneously. The step-up is complete and the plateau begins. Unlike most assets where the peak is a sell, the hog plateau holds through June. Hold longs — the step-DOWN won't come until late June/July. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — all TFs at ~100; step-up peak; hold longs through June |
| May | BULL | The plateau continues. ALL THREE TFs remain near 100 throughout May. BBQ/grilling season demand and the spring hog supply cycle keep the seasonal elevated. Hold longs — the step-DOWN begins in late June. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — plateau holding; all TFs near 100; hold into June peak |
| June | BULL | The year's most dramatic event in lean hogs: ALL THREE TFs plateau near 100 in early June, then THE STEP-DOWN occurs. All three TFs crash from ~100 to near 0 in late June — a vertical drop as sudden as the step-up was. EXIT ALL LONGS by June Wk1-Wk2. This is the cleanest flip signal in the meats complex. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
ANNUAL PEAK → STEP-DOWN; all TFs at ~100 then VERTICAL DROP to near 0 |
| July | BEAR | ALL THREE TFs at near 0 — the step-down is complete. July through December is the second dead zone. Unlike the January dead zone, the July start is from a confirmed peak, so the bears are intact but there's little further downside. Year-end reference values are 40-YR=23.07, 15-YR=27.48, 5-YR=34.33. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
DEAD ZONE — all TFs near 0 again; second dead zone begins |
| August | BEAR | Dead zone continues. ALL THREE TFs flat near 0–25. No directional edge. The hog seasonal H2 is a flat grind at low levels. Year-end won't reach prior highs — reference values confirm: 40-YR=23.07, 15-YR=27.48, 5-YR=34.33 (all below 40). | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
DEAD ZONE — flat near 0 through year-end |
| September | CHOP | Slight recovery from absolute lows. All TFs at ~20–30. Some modest near-term recovery in 5-YR. Not a clean entry month — the dead zone grind continues. The year-end reference values are approaching (~23/27/34) but the move is small. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — slight recovery from dead zone lows; no directional edge |
| October | CHOP | Dead zone grind. All TFs at ~20–30 — approaching year-end reference values. No clear direction. 5-YR at ~30, approaching 34.33 reference. 40-YR at ~22, approaching 23.07. The hog year is essentially done after the June step-down. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — dead zone; approaching year-end reference values |
| November | CHOP | Dead zone continuation. All TFs at ~23–34 — at or near year-end reference values. Hog seasonals in H2 are notoriously flat. No entry signal. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — dead zone; near year-end reference; no edge |
| December | CHOP | Year-end close in the dead zone. 40-YR=23.07. 15-YR=27.48. 5-YR=34.33. ALL reference values are below 40 — confirming that lean hogs spends the majority of the year below 40 on the seasonal scale, with only a brief peak Apr-Jun. The most binary commodity seasonal in the dataset. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
YEAR-END — settles at 40-YR=23.07/15-YR=27.48/5-YR=34.33; dead zone |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | ALL THREE TFs at depressed levels (~15–25). Lean hogs begins the year in the 'dead zone' — flat lows from January through March. No bull signal. No clean short either — it's already been sold. Avoid trading hogs in January. Worst seasonal window in the complex. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
DEAD ZONE — all TFs flat near low; Jan-Mar worst period in hogs |
| February | BEAR | Continuation of January's dead zone. ALL THREE TFs flat around 15–25. No directional edge. The hog seasonal is binary — it is either in the dead zone (Jan-Mar and Jul-Dec) or at the annual high (Apr-Jun). February is deep dead zone. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
DEAD ZONE — flat low; avoid |
| March | BEAR | Dead zone continues through early-mid March. Then: THE STEP-UP. All three TFs move from ~15–25 to ~100 in a near-vertical move in late March. This is the most binary step-function in any commodity — from dead flat to annual high in days. BUY late March Wk3/Wk4. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
DEAD ZONE EXIT — late-March STEP-UP loading; buy late March |
| April | BULL | ALL THREE TFs at or near 100 in April — the annual high for all timeframes simultaneously. The step-up is complete and the plateau begins. Unlike most assets where the peak is a sell, the hog plateau holds through June. Hold longs — the step-DOWN won't come until late June/July. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — all TFs at ~100; step-up peak; hold longs through June |
| May | BULL | The plateau continues. ALL THREE TFs remain near 100 throughout May. BBQ/grilling season demand and the spring hog supply cycle keep the seasonal elevated. Hold longs — the step-DOWN begins in late June. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — plateau holding; all TFs near 100; hold into June peak |
| June | BULL | The year's most dramatic event in lean hogs: ALL THREE TFs plateau near 100 in early June, then THE STEP-DOWN occurs. All three TFs crash from ~100 to near 0 in late June — a vertical drop as sudden as the step-up was. EXIT ALL LONGS by June Wk1-Wk2. This is the cleanest flip signal in the meats complex. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
ANNUAL PEAK → STEP-DOWN; all TFs at ~100 then VERTICAL DROP to near 0 |
| July | BEAR | ALL THREE TFs at near 0 — the step-down is complete. July through December is the second dead zone. Unlike the January dead zone, the July start is from a confirmed peak, so the bears are intact but there's little further downside. Year-end reference values are 40-YR=23.07, 15-YR=27.48, 5-YR=34.33. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
DEAD ZONE — all TFs near 0 again; second dead zone begins |
| August | BEAR | Dead zone continues. ALL THREE TFs flat near 0–25. No directional edge. The hog seasonal H2 is a flat grind at low levels. Year-end won't reach prior highs — reference values confirm: 40-YR=23.07, 15-YR=27.48, 5-YR=34.33 (all below 40). | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
DEAD ZONE — flat near 0 through year-end |
| September | CHOP | Slight recovery from absolute lows. All TFs at ~20–30. Some modest near-term recovery in 5-YR. Not a clean entry month — the dead zone grind continues. The year-end reference values are approaching (~23/27/34) but the move is small. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — slight recovery from dead zone lows; no directional edge |
| October | CHOP | Dead zone grind. All TFs at ~20–30 — approaching year-end reference values. No clear direction. 5-YR at ~30, approaching 34.33 reference. 40-YR at ~22, approaching 23.07. The hog year is essentially done after the June step-down. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — dead zone; approaching year-end reference values |
| November | CHOP | Dead zone continuation. All TFs at ~23–34 — at or near year-end reference values. Hog seasonals in H2 are notoriously flat. No entry signal. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — dead zone; near year-end reference; no edge |
| December | CHOP | Year-end close in the dead zone. 40-YR=23.07. 15-YR=27.48. 5-YR=34.33. ALL reference values are below 40 — confirming that lean hogs spends the majority of the year below 40 on the seasonal scale, with only a brief peak Apr-Jun. The most binary commodity seasonal in the dataset. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
YEAR-END — settles at 40-YR=23.07/15-YR=27.48/5-YR=34.33; dead zone |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | ALL THREE TFs at depressed levels (~15–25). Lean hogs begins the year in the 'dead zone' — flat lows from January through March. No bull signal. No clean short either — it's already been sold. Avoid trading hogs in January. Worst seasonal window in the complex. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
DEAD ZONE — all TFs flat near low; Jan-Mar worst period in hogs |
| February | BEAR | Continuation of January's dead zone. ALL THREE TFs flat around 15–25. No directional edge. The hog seasonal is binary — it is either in the dead zone (Jan-Mar and Jul-Dec) or at the annual high (Apr-Jun). February is deep dead zone. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
DEAD ZONE — flat low; avoid |
| March | BEAR | Dead zone continues through early-mid March. Then: THE STEP-UP. All three TFs move from ~15–25 to ~100 in a near-vertical move in late March. This is the most binary step-function in any commodity — from dead flat to annual high in days. BUY late March Wk3/Wk4. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
DEAD ZONE EXIT — late-March STEP-UP loading; buy late March |
| April | BULL | ALL THREE TFs at or near 100 in April — the annual high for all timeframes simultaneously. The step-up is complete and the plateau begins. Unlike most assets where the peak is a sell, the hog plateau holds through June. Hold longs — the step-DOWN won't come until late June/July. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — all TFs at ~100; step-up peak; hold longs through June |
| May | BULL | The plateau continues. ALL THREE TFs remain near 100 throughout May. BBQ/grilling season demand and the spring hog supply cycle keep the seasonal elevated. Hold longs — the step-DOWN begins in late June. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — plateau holding; all TFs near 100; hold into June peak |
| June | BULL | The year's most dramatic event in lean hogs: ALL THREE TFs plateau near 100 in early June, then THE STEP-DOWN occurs. All three TFs crash from ~100 to near 0 in late June — a vertical drop as sudden as the step-up was. EXIT ALL LONGS by June Wk1-Wk2. This is the cleanest flip signal in the meats complex. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
ANNUAL PEAK → STEP-DOWN; all TFs at ~100 then VERTICAL DROP to near 0 |
| July | BEAR | ALL THREE TFs at near 0 — the step-down is complete. July through December is the second dead zone. Unlike the January dead zone, the July start is from a confirmed peak, so the bears are intact but there's little further downside. Year-end reference values are 40-YR=23.07, 15-YR=27.48, 5-YR=34.33. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
DEAD ZONE — all TFs near 0 again; second dead zone begins |
| August | BEAR | Dead zone continues. ALL THREE TFs flat near 0–25. No directional edge. The hog seasonal H2 is a flat grind at low levels. Year-end won't reach prior highs — reference values confirm: 40-YR=23.07, 15-YR=27.48, 5-YR=34.33 (all below 40). | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
DEAD ZONE — flat near 0 through year-end |
| September | CHOP | Slight recovery from absolute lows. All TFs at ~20–30. Some modest near-term recovery in 5-YR. Not a clean entry month — the dead zone grind continues. The year-end reference values are approaching (~23/27/34) but the move is small. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — slight recovery from dead zone lows; no directional edge |
| October | CHOP | Dead zone grind. All TFs at ~20–30 — approaching year-end reference values. No clear direction. 5-YR at ~30, approaching 34.33 reference. 40-YR at ~22, approaching 23.07. The hog year is essentially done after the June step-down. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — dead zone; approaching year-end reference values |
| November | CHOP | Dead zone continuation. All TFs at ~23–34 — at or near year-end reference values. Hog seasonals in H2 are notoriously flat. No entry signal. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — dead zone; near year-end reference; no edge |
| December | CHOP | Year-end close in the dead zone. 40-YR=23.07. 15-YR=27.48. 5-YR=34.33. ALL reference values are below 40 — confirming that lean hogs spends the majority of the year below 40 on the seasonal scale, with only a brief peak Apr-Jun. The most binary commodity seasonal in the dataset. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
YEAR-END — settles at 40-YR=23.07/15-YR=27.48/5-YR=34.33; dead zone |