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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 40-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | CHOP | 40-YR rises from ~55 to ~75. 15-YR surging strongly upward from ~45 to ~75. 5-YR more muted around ~40–50. Q1 cattle demand premium begins building. The January bull sets up the March-April VERTICAL CRASH — hold longs from Jan through late March then exit. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 40-YR rising from ~55 to ~75; 15-YR surging; Q1 bull setup |
| February | BULL | Strong Q1 bull continuation. 40-YR rising from ~75 to ~85. 15-YR rising from ~75 to ~90. 5-YR rising from ~50 to ~60. All three TFs in strong uptrend. Hold longs — the crash is coming in late March/April but February is a clean bull month. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — all TFs rising; approaching Q1 peak at ~90 |
| March | BULL | THE most dramatic seasonal event in the cattle dataset — and arguably in the entire futures complex. 40-YR reaches ~90 in early March. 15-YR at ~95–100. Then: VERTICAL CRASH from 90 to 25 for 40-YR in the space of one month. This is the single most extreme intra-month reversal in the dataset. Exit ALL longs by March Wk1-Wk2. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
PEAK → VERTICAL CRASH — 40-YR at 90; most dramatic crash in dataset |
| April | BEAR | Post-crash consolidation at lows. 40-YR at ~25. 15-YR at ~25. 5-YR at ~25. All three TFs crashed and holding lows. The summer cattle bear phase begins from here. No recovery until October-November. Hold shorts. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — post-crash; 40-YR at ~25; hold short through summer |
| May | BEAR | All three TFs remain at depressed levels. 40-YR around ~20–25. 15-YR around ~20–25. 5-YR around ~20. Summer cattle demand weak; feedlot placement cycle creating supply pressure. Hold shorts into the summer trough. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — summer bear; all TFs at lows around ~20–25 |
| June | BEAR | Continued summer bear. 40-YR at ~20–25. 15-YR at ~20. 5-YR at ~20. The summer slaughter-season supply pressure keeps cattle seasonally weak. No early October recovery signal yet. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — extended summer low; all TFs near trough zone |
| July | CHOP | Slight recovery from absolute lows. 40-YR to ~30–35. 15-YR to ~25–30. 5-YR beginning to recover to ~30–35. Mixed signals — not a clean entry month. Partial short cover appropriate. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — slight recovery; 5-YR begins firming; no clean direction |
| August | CHOP | Mid-range consolidation. 40-YR at ~35–40. 15-YR at ~35–40. 5-YR at ~35–40. Waiting for the October-November year-end bull setup. No clean seasonal edge in August. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
CHOP — mid-range consolidation; all TFs around 35–45 |
| September | BULL | Q4 bull phase begins. 40-YR recovering from ~40 to ~55. 15-YR recovering from ~40 to ~65. 5-YR recovering from ~40 to ~55. The year-end cattle demand premium begins building. November-December will see the 15-YR approach 100 (its annual high). | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — Q4 bull begins; all TFs recovering toward year-end highs |
| October | BULL | High conviction Q4 bull. 40-YR rises to ~70. 15-YR rises to ~85. 5-YR rises to ~60. The year-end bull is the highest-conviction long period in the cattle seasonal. 15-YR's target of ~100 at year-end is in sight. Add to longs. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — strong Q4 bull; 40-YR to ~70; 15-YR to ~85 |
| November | BULL | 15-YR approaches or reaches 100 — the ANNUAL HIGH for 15-YR, which occurs at YEAR-END (opposite of most assets). 40-YR to ~80. 5-YR to ~65. The year-end cattle demand premium peaks with holiday beef demand. December will be the exit month for longs. 15-YR=99.78 reference is reached at year-end. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 15-YR approaching 100; 40-YR at 80; year-end premium |
| December | BULL | Year-end completes at the ANNUAL HIGH for 15-YR (99.78) and near-annual highs for 40-YR (81.92) and 5-YR (72.37). Live Cattle is UNIQUE: its annual high occurs at YEAR-END, not mid-year. The strongest seasonal month for 15-YR in the entire dataset. Hold longs through December 31 before January reassessment. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG → YEAR-END; settles at 40-YR=81.92/15-YR=99.78/5-YR=72.37 — ANNUAL HIGH |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BULL | 40-YR rises from ~55 to ~75. 15-YR surging strongly upward from ~45 to ~75. 5-YR more muted around ~40–50. Q1 cattle demand premium begins building. The January bull sets up the March-April VERTICAL CRASH — hold longs from Jan through late March then exit. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 40-YR rising from ~55 to ~75; 15-YR surging; Q1 bull setup |
| February | BULL | Strong Q1 bull continuation. 40-YR rising from ~75 to ~85. 15-YR rising from ~75 to ~90. 5-YR rising from ~50 to ~60. All three TFs in strong uptrend. Hold longs — the crash is coming in late March/April but February is a clean bull month. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — all TFs rising; approaching Q1 peak at ~90 |
| March | BULL | THE most dramatic seasonal event in the cattle dataset — and arguably in the entire futures complex. 40-YR reaches ~90 in early March. 15-YR at ~95–100. Then: VERTICAL CRASH from 90 to 25 for 40-YR in the space of one month. This is the single most extreme intra-month reversal in the dataset. Exit ALL longs by March Wk1-Wk2. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
PEAK → VERTICAL CRASH — 40-YR at 90; most dramatic crash in dataset |
| April | BEAR | Post-crash consolidation at lows. 40-YR at ~25. 15-YR at ~25. 5-YR at ~25. All three TFs crashed and holding lows. The summer cattle bear phase begins from here. No recovery until October-November. Hold shorts. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — post-crash; 40-YR at ~25; hold short through summer |
| May | BEAR | All three TFs remain at depressed levels. 40-YR around ~20–25. 15-YR around ~20–25. 5-YR around ~20. Summer cattle demand weak; feedlot placement cycle creating supply pressure. Hold shorts into the summer trough. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — summer bear; all TFs at lows around ~20–25 |
| June | BEAR | Continued summer bear. 40-YR at ~20–25. 15-YR at ~20. 5-YR at ~20. The summer slaughter-season supply pressure keeps cattle seasonally weak. No early October recovery signal yet. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — extended summer low; all TFs near trough zone |
| July | CHOP | Slight recovery from absolute lows. 40-YR to ~30–35. 15-YR to ~25–30. 5-YR beginning to recover to ~30–35. Mixed signals — not a clean entry month. Partial short cover appropriate. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — slight recovery; 5-YR begins firming; no clean direction |
| August | CHOP | Mid-range consolidation. 40-YR at ~35–40. 15-YR at ~35–40. 5-YR at ~35–40. Waiting for the October-November year-end bull setup. No clean seasonal edge in August. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
CHOP — mid-range consolidation; all TFs around 35–45 |
| September | BULL | Q4 bull phase begins. 40-YR recovering from ~40 to ~55. 15-YR recovering from ~40 to ~65. 5-YR recovering from ~40 to ~55. The year-end cattle demand premium begins building. November-December will see the 15-YR approach 100 (its annual high). | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — Q4 bull begins; all TFs recovering toward year-end highs |
| October | BULL | High conviction Q4 bull. 40-YR rises to ~70. 15-YR rises to ~85. 5-YR rises to ~60. The year-end bull is the highest-conviction long period in the cattle seasonal. 15-YR's target of ~100 at year-end is in sight. Add to longs. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — strong Q4 bull; 40-YR to ~70; 15-YR to ~85 |
| November | BULL | 15-YR approaches or reaches 100 — the ANNUAL HIGH for 15-YR, which occurs at YEAR-END (opposite of most assets). 40-YR to ~80. 5-YR to ~65. The year-end cattle demand premium peaks with holiday beef demand. December will be the exit month for longs. 15-YR=99.78 reference is reached at year-end. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 15-YR approaching 100; 40-YR at 80; year-end premium |
| December | BULL | Year-end completes at the ANNUAL HIGH for 15-YR (99.78) and near-annual highs for 40-YR (81.92) and 5-YR (72.37). Live Cattle is UNIQUE: its annual high occurs at YEAR-END, not mid-year. The strongest seasonal month for 15-YR in the entire dataset. Hold longs through December 31 before January reassessment. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG → YEAR-END; settles at 40-YR=81.92/15-YR=99.78/5-YR=72.37 — ANNUAL HIGH |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BULL | 40-YR rises from ~55 to ~75. 15-YR surging strongly upward from ~45 to ~75. 5-YR more muted around ~40–50. Q1 cattle demand premium begins building. The January bull sets up the March-April VERTICAL CRASH — hold longs from Jan through late March then exit. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 40-YR rising from ~55 to ~75; 15-YR surging; Q1 bull setup |
| February | BULL | Strong Q1 bull continuation. 40-YR rising from ~75 to ~85. 15-YR rising from ~75 to ~90. 5-YR rising from ~50 to ~60. All three TFs in strong uptrend. Hold longs — the crash is coming in late March/April but February is a clean bull month. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — all TFs rising; approaching Q1 peak at ~90 |
| March | BULL | THE most dramatic seasonal event in the cattle dataset — and arguably in the entire futures complex. 40-YR reaches ~90 in early March. 15-YR at ~95–100. Then: VERTICAL CRASH from 90 to 25 for 40-YR in the space of one month. This is the single most extreme intra-month reversal in the dataset. Exit ALL longs by March Wk1-Wk2. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
PEAK → VERTICAL CRASH — 40-YR at 90; most dramatic crash in dataset |
| April | BEAR | Post-crash consolidation at lows. 40-YR at ~25. 15-YR at ~25. 5-YR at ~25. All three TFs crashed and holding lows. The summer cattle bear phase begins from here. No recovery until October-November. Hold shorts. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — post-crash; 40-YR at ~25; hold short through summer |
| May | BEAR | All three TFs remain at depressed levels. 40-YR around ~20–25. 15-YR around ~20–25. 5-YR around ~20. Summer cattle demand weak; feedlot placement cycle creating supply pressure. Hold shorts into the summer trough. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — summer bear; all TFs at lows around ~20–25 |
| June | BEAR | Continued summer bear. 40-YR at ~20–25. 15-YR at ~20. 5-YR at ~20. The summer slaughter-season supply pressure keeps cattle seasonally weak. No early October recovery signal yet. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — extended summer low; all TFs near trough zone |
| July | CHOP | Slight recovery from absolute lows. 40-YR to ~30–35. 15-YR to ~25–30. 5-YR beginning to recover to ~30–35. Mixed signals — not a clean entry month. Partial short cover appropriate. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — slight recovery; 5-YR begins firming; no clean direction |
| August | CHOP | Mid-range consolidation. 40-YR at ~35–40. 15-YR at ~35–40. 5-YR at ~35–40. Waiting for the October-November year-end bull setup. No clean seasonal edge in August. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — mid-range consolidation; all TFs around 35–45 |
| September | BULL | Q4 bull phase begins. 40-YR recovering from ~40 to ~55. 15-YR recovering from ~40 to ~65. 5-YR recovering from ~40 to ~55. The year-end cattle demand premium begins building. November-December will see the 15-YR approach 100 (its annual high). | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — Q4 bull begins; all TFs recovering toward year-end highs |
| October | BULL | High conviction Q4 bull. 40-YR rises to ~70. 15-YR rises to ~85. 5-YR rises to ~60. The year-end bull is the highest-conviction long period in the cattle seasonal. 15-YR's target of ~100 at year-end is in sight. Add to longs. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — strong Q4 bull; 40-YR to ~70; 15-YR to ~85 |
| November | BULL | 15-YR approaches or reaches 100 — the ANNUAL HIGH for 15-YR, which occurs at YEAR-END (opposite of most assets). 40-YR to ~80. 5-YR to ~65. The year-end cattle demand premium peaks with holiday beef demand. December will be the exit month for longs. 15-YR=99.78 reference is reached at year-end. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 15-YR approaching 100; 40-YR at 80; year-end premium |
| December | BULL | Year-end completes at the ANNUAL HIGH for 15-YR (99.78) and near-annual highs for 40-YR (81.92) and 5-YR (72.37). Live Cattle is UNIQUE: its annual high occurs at YEAR-END, not mid-year. The strongest seasonal month for 15-YR in the entire dataset. Hold longs through December 31 before January reassessment. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG → YEAR-END; settles at 40-YR=81.92/15-YR=99.78/5-YR=72.37 — ANNUAL HIGH |