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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 40-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Period | Yearly Bias | Monthly Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Choppy | 5-yr low (~10) and rising but erratic. No clean trend. Volatile early month. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ± Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
Unreliable. Diverges from 40-yr in Jan. |
| Feb | Choppy | 5-yr mid-range, volatile. Swings both directions. No sustained move. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
Avoid. Noise-driven with no edge. |
| Mar | Bullish Peak | 5-yr spikes strongly to ~65–70 mid-Mar. Notable early peak then drops sharply. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑ Peak Wk4 ↓↓ |
Strong but brief. Enter early, exit before Wk4. |
| Apr | Bearish | 5-yr collapses from Mar peak. Hits near lows (~5–10) by end Apr. Sharp waterfall. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Playbook SELL Wk2/early Wk3 confirmed. Wk4 base forming. |
| May – Jun | Choppy | 5-yr remains low and volatile. Recovery attempt mid-Jun reaches ~60 then fades. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ± |
Very unreliable. 5-yr highly erratic. Avoid. |
| Jul – Aug | Strongly Bullish | 5-yr surges to absolute high of year ~100 in Aug. Strongest seasonal window. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑↑ Wk4 ↑↑ Peak |
Highest conviction LONG of year. All 3 TFs aligned. Enter Jul, hold into Aug peak. |
| Sep | Strongly Bearish | 5-yr collapses from Aug peak. Sharp waterfall decline through all of Sep. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓ |
EXIT longs at Aug peak. Flip short Sep Wk1. |
| Oct | Volatile | 5-yr highly erratic in Oct. Large swings both directions. No reliable direction. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
Most unpredictable month of the 5-yr cycle. Avoid. |
| Nov | Bearish | 5-yr drops sharply to near lows (~5–10). Secondary bear leg after Oct chop. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
Sharp Nov drop. Hold short from Sep/Oct. |
| Dec | Recovery | 5-yr recovers from Nov lows. Rising strongly into year end and Jan. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Dec recovery sets up for next year's seasonal cycle. |
| Period | Yearly Bias | Monthly Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Bearish | 15-yr starts elevated (~55–60) then drops sharply. Declining trend through Jan. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Diverges from 5-yr. 15-yr bearish while 5-yr chops. |
| Feb | Bottoming | 15-yr near lows (~25). Volatile base forming. Recovery attempt late Feb. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ± Wk3 ± Wk4 ↑ |
Trough forming. Watch for reversal late Feb. |
| Mar | Strong Rally | 15-yr surges from Feb trough to ~65–70 by mid-Mar. Aligns with 5-yr. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑ Peak Wk4 ↓ |
Strongest Q1 window. Exit mid-Mar. |
| Apr | Bearish | 15-yr drops from Mar peak. Declines to ~30 by end Apr. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
SELL from Mar Wk4 / Apr Wk1. Playbook confirmed. |
| May | Bearish | 15-yr continues weak. Trough around ~25–30. Extends Apr bear. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
Hold short into early May. Trough approaching mid-May. |
| Jun – Jul | Strong Rally | 15-yr recovers and rallies strongly. Peaks ~90–95 in Aug. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑↑ Wk4 ↑↑ |
Cover shorts. Enter long. Powerful multi-week rally. |
| Aug | Peak | 15-yr peaks ~90–95. Final leg of the Jul–Aug bull run. Begin planning exit. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑ Peak Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓↓ |
EXIT longs Wk2. Flip short Wk3–4. Sharp reversal. |
| Sep – Oct | Strongly Bearish | 15-yr sharp decline from Aug peak through Sep/Oct. Secondary trough ~40 in Oct. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Hold short from Aug. Strongest Sep bear of all 3 TFs. |
| Nov | Strongly Bearish | 15-yr drops sharply to ~10–15 — near annual lows. Accelerating decline. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
15-yr has steepest Nov drop of all 3 TFs. Hold short. |
| Dec | Recovery | 15-yr begins recovering from Nov lows. Moderate pace into year end. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ± |
Cover shorts. Enter long Dec. Sets up for Mar rally next year. |
| Period | Yearly Bias | Monthly Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Bearish | 40-yr starts mid-range (~55) and declines steadily through Jan into Feb trough. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
Structural decline. Most reliable bear window of Q1. |
| Feb | Trough / Base | 40-yr hits primary trough (~10–15). Hard base forming. Recovery begins late Feb. | Wk1 ↓ Low Wk2 ± Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Primary Q1 trough. Cover shorts late Feb Wk1. Enter long Wk3–4. |
| Mar | Strong Rally | 40-yr rallies from Feb trough. Rises steadily through Mar, peaks early Apr ~35–40. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
All 3 TFs bullish Mar. Strong window. |
| Apr | Choppy | 40-yr peaks early Apr (~35–40) then chops flat. More gradual rollover than shorter TFs. | Wk1 ↑ Peak Wk2 ± Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
40-yr LESS bearish in Apr. Wk1 still tradeable long. Then flat. |
| May – Jun | Choppy | 40-yr sideways to slightly rising. Mid-range ~25–35. No strong directional bias. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ± |
40-yr provides no strong signal here. Follow 15-yr recovery instead. |
| Jul – Aug | Strongly Bullish | 40-yr surges strongly from Jun lows. Peaks ~95–100 in Aug — absolute annual high. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑↑ Wk4 ↑↑ Peak |
40-yr absolute peak. Structural. All 3 TFs agree. |
| Sep | Strongly Bearish | 40-yr sharp rollover from Aug peak. Steep structural decline all of Sep. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓ |
Structural sell. All 3 TFs declining. Highest conviction SHORT of year. |
| Oct | Bearish | 40-yr continues lower from Sep. Secondary trough forming late Oct (~45). | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
Hold short. Trough approaching. |
| Nov | Bearish | 40-yr declines further into Nov. Extended bear phase. Slower than shorter TFs. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
40-yr bear extends longer than 5-yr/15-yr. |
| Dec | Recovery | 40-yr begins gradual recovery in Dec. Rises into Jan to restart the cycle. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Slowest recovery of all 3 TFs. Structural base only. |