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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 40-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Period | Yearly Bias | Monthly Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Choppy | 5-yr starts high (~55–60) and volatile. No clean trend. Declining into Feb. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
Unreliable. Net decline into Feb base. |
| Feb | Bottoming | 5-yr choppy mid-range. Not as deep a trough as 15-yr/40-yr. Recovery attempts late Feb. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Base forming. Enter long late Feb with 15-yr/40-yr confirmation. |
| Mar | Strongly Bullish | 5-yr surges strongly. Peaks late Mar/early Apr ~100. Fastest-moving TF in this window. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑↑ Wk4 ↑↑ Peak |
Strongest Mar of all TFs. Hold longs into Apr Wk1. |
| Apr | Peak → Waterfall | 5-yr peaks early Apr ~100 then collapses sharply. Wk1 is the exit/flip point. | Wk1 Peak ↑ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓↓ |
EXIT longs Wk1. Flip short Wk2. Hold all month. |
| May | Strongly Bearish | 5-yr steep waterfall continues. Deep decline. Hold short from Apr. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Hold short. Deepest bear window after Apr. |
| Jun | Sharp Bounce | 5-yr sharp counter-trend bounce to ~80. Notable but not confirmed by longer TFs. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ± Wk4 ↓ |
5-yr only bounce. Cover shorts Wk1 if trading 5-yr. Longer TFs not confirming. |
| Jul – Aug | Choppy | 5-yr erratic and directionless. No edge. Avoid. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
Avoid entirely. No reliable signal. |
| Sep | Bearish | 5-yr declines to near-annual lows (~5–10). Secondary trough. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Sharp secondary decline. Re-enter short if exited Jun. |
| Oct – Nov | Recovery | 5-yr recovers from Sep lows. Rising into Nov peak. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Enter long after Sep trough. Hold into Nov. |
| Dec | Bearish | 5-yr drops sharply to near-annual lows in Dec. One of the weakest Dec readings of all TFs. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Exit Nov longs. Dec is structurally weak for 5-yr GBP. |
| Period | Yearly Bias | Monthly Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Bearish | 15-yr near zero and declining sharply. Primary annual trough approaching. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
15-yr at its weakest. Near-zero reading. Short or flat. |
| Feb | Absolute Trough | 15-yr hits absolute annual low (~5–10). Hard base. Recovery begins late Feb. | Wk1 ↓ Low Wk2 ± Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑↑ |
Cover all shorts. Enter long late Feb Wk3–4. |
| Mar | Strongly Bullish | 15-yr surges strongly from Feb trough. Peaks early Apr ~95–100. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑↑ Wk4 ↑↑ |
All weeks strongly bullish. Hold longs through March. |
| Apr | Peak → Decline | 15-yr peaks early Apr ~95–100, exactly aligning with 5-yr and 40-yr. Sharp decline follows. | Wk1 Peak Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓↓ |
EXIT longs Wk1. Flip short. All TFs confirm sell Wk2–4. |
| May | Strongly Bearish | 15-yr steep waterfall from Apr peak. Hold short. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Hold short from Apr. Confirms 5-yr and 40-yr bear. |
| Jun – Aug | Choppy | 15-yr choppy mid-range. No clean directional signal. Avoid. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
No edge from 15-yr in this window. Follow 5-yr only if trading. |
| Sep | Bearish | 15-yr secondary trough ~30. Declining from Aug into Sep low. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Short bias. Secondary trough approaching Wk3–4. |
| Oct – Nov | Recovery | 15-yr recovers from Sep trough. Moderate rally into Nov. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Enter long. Aligns with 5-yr and 40-yr recovery. |
| Dec | Bearish | 15-yr drops sharply to near-annual lows in Dec. Mirrors 5-yr weakness. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Exit Nov longs. 15-yr Dec weakness structural — strong sell. |
| Period | Yearly Bias | Monthly Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Bearish | 40-yr declining from Nov/Dec highs (~75 → ~20). Structural bear into Feb trough. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
Reliable Jan decline. Short or flat into Feb trough. |
| Feb | Primary Trough | 40-yr hits primary trough (~20). Hard base. Recovery begins late Feb. | Wk1 ↓ Low Wk2 ± Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑↑ |
Cover shorts at Feb trough. Enter long Wk3–4 with other TFs. |
| Mar | Strongly Bullish | 40-yr rallies strongly from Feb trough. All weeks bullish into Apr peak. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑↑ Wk4 ↑↑ |
Structural bull. All 3 TFs aligned. Hold longs all month. |
| Apr | Peak → Decline | 40-yr peaks early Apr ~95–100 simultaneously with 5-yr and 15-yr. Structural sell begins. | Wk1 Peak Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓↓ |
Unanimous peak Wk1. Structural decline Wk2–4. Highest conviction short of year. |
| May | Strongly Bearish | 40-yr waterfall from Apr peak. Structural decline continues. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Hold short from Apr. 40-yr confirms structural sell. |
| Jun – Aug | Choppy | 40-yr choppy mid-range. No directional bias for 3 months. Avoid. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
Avoid. 40-yr offers no structural signal in this window. |
| Sep | Secondary Trough | 40-yr secondary trough ~30. Declining into Sep low before Oct recovery. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Low Wk4 ↑ |
Secondary trough Wk3. Cover shorts. Enter long late Sep/early Oct. |
| Oct – Nov | Strongly Bullish | 40-yr rallies strongly from Sep trough. Peaks ~75–80 in Nov. Best Q4 window. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ↑↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Strong structural rally. All TFs aligned. Hold longs into Nov peak. |
| Dec | Pullback | 40-yr slight pullback from Nov peak. Less severe than 5-yr/15-yr Dec weakness. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
Exit Nov longs. 40-yr Dec pullback moderate vs 5-yr/15-yr sharp drops. |