Gas Oil (ICE) — Seasonal Analysis

Month	Bias	Overview	Weekly Detail	Notes
January	CHOP	34-YR begins January around ~20 and falls toward its annual low. 15-YR near 5–10 and declining. 5-YR starts at ~25 but also declining. All three heading toward the February trough. Gas Oil is a middle-distillate contract closely correlated with ULSD — same pattern, different exchange.	Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	BEAR — 34-YR falling toward annual low; 15-YR and 5-YR weak
February	CHOP	34-YR hits its annual low (~5–10) in early February. 15-YR near 0. 5-YR near 0. This is the deepest seasonal trough for Gas Oil's long-term average — identical timing to ULSD. Recovery begins mid-month. Confirm the turn before initiating longs.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	TROUGH — 34-YR annual low ~5–10; all three at annual lows
March	BULL	Recovery gains momentum. 34-YR climbs from ~10 to ~30–35. 15-YR surges aggressively from ~5 to ~55–60. 5-YR recovering from near 0 to ~20–25. Spring diesel/heating demand drives the recovery. Build position for the April-May peak zone.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	LONG — H1 spring recovery; 15-YR surges strongly
April	BULL	15-YR peaks at ~85–90 in April. 34-YR still rising toward ~50. 5-YR approaching ~100 in early May. April is the peak zone for the 15-YR — manage longs tightly in the second half of April. The May 5-YR spike is the final seasonal high.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	LONG → TOP WATCH — 15-YR peaks ~85–90; 5-YR approaching ~100
May	CHOP	5-YR spikes to ~100 in very early May then crashes hard — identical to the CL pattern. 15-YR falling from its April peak. 34-YR choppy. This is the most treacherous month for Gas Oil — stay flat. The H1 seasonal bull is over.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	VOLATILE — 5-YR spikes to ~100 early May then crashes
June	BEAR	H1 trough. 34-YR at ~30–35. 15-YR at ~25–35. 5-YR at ~30–35. All three at local lows. The H2 winter heating demand recovery is being set up. Late June / early July is the inflection point — watch for the reversal.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑	H1 TROUGH — all three at seasonal lows; July reversal setup
July	BULL	H2 recovery begins as the market prices in winter heating demand. 34-YR rising from ~30 toward ~55. 15-YR from ~30 toward ~50. 5-YR also recovering. This is the H2 long entry — hold through the October annual peak.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	LONG — H2 heating demand recovery; all TFs rising from June lows
August	BULL	H2 heating demand surge in full force. 15-YR approaches ~80 by end of August. 34-YR climbing toward ~70–75. 5-YR also strong. October annual peak is the target. Very similar to ULSD's August pattern.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	LONG — H2 surge accelerates; 15-YR approaching ~80
September	BULL	September is the peak acceleration month for Gas Oil's H2 bull. 15-YR surges toward 90–95. 34-YR surging strongly toward ~85–90. 5-YR at ~65–70. Full TF alignment. The October annual peak for both 15-YR and 34-YR is approaching. Highest conviction long of H2.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	LONG — primary H2 bull; 15-YR and 34-YR surging toward 100
October	BULL	Both the 15-YR AND 34-YR hit 100 simultaneously in October — a dual annual peak that is the most important seasonal moment for Gas Oil. 5-YR also peaks at ~75–80. Exit longs when 15-YR/34-YR reach 100 and flip short. The winter demand premium is fully priced. Rollover is swift.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	15-YR AND 34-YR BOTH AT 100 → FLIP SHORT; dual annual peak
November	BEAR	Continued seasonal decline from October's dual 100 peak. 34-YR falls from ~100 to ~70–75. 15-YR from ~100 to ~70–75. 5-YR from ~75 to ~55–60. All three declining. The winter demand premium has been fully sold out of the seasonal.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	SHORT — sustained rollover from October dual peak
December	BEAR	Continued orderly seasonal decline. 34-YR falls to ~66.32 by year-end. 15-YR to ~62.43. 5-YR to ~46.77. The decline is moderate and orderly — same pattern as ULSD, reflecting the shared middle-distillate seasonal structure. Year ends at mid-to-high range.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	BEAR — moderate year-end decline; 34-YR settles at 66.32

Month	Bias	Overview	Weekly Detail	Notes
January	BEAR	34-YR begins January around ~20 and falls toward its annual low. 15-YR near 5–10 and declining. 5-YR starts at ~25 but also declining. All three heading toward the February trough. Gas Oil is a middle-distillate contract closely correlated with ULSD — same pattern, different exchange.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	BEAR — 34-YR falling toward annual low; 15-YR and 5-YR weak
February	CHOP	34-YR hits its annual low (~5–10) in early February. 15-YR near 0. 5-YR near 0. This is the deepest seasonal trough for Gas Oil's long-term average — identical timing to ULSD. Recovery begins mid-month. Confirm the turn before initiating longs.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	TROUGH — 34-YR annual low ~5–10; all three at annual lows
March	BULL	Recovery gains momentum. 34-YR climbs from ~10 to ~30–35. 15-YR surges aggressively from ~5 to ~55–60. 5-YR recovering from near 0 to ~20–25. Spring diesel/heating demand drives the recovery. Build position for the April-May peak zone.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	LONG — H1 spring recovery; 15-YR surges strongly
April	BULL	15-YR peaks at ~85–90 in April. 34-YR still rising toward ~50. 5-YR approaching ~100 in early May. April is the peak zone for the 15-YR — manage longs tightly in the second half of April. The May 5-YR spike is the final seasonal high.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~	LONG → TOP WATCH — 15-YR peaks ~85–90; 5-YR approaching ~100
May	BEAR	5-YR spikes to ~100 in very early May then crashes hard — identical to the CL pattern. 15-YR falling from its April peak. 34-YR choppy. This is the most treacherous month for Gas Oil — stay flat. The H1 seasonal bull is over.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	VOLATILE — 5-YR spikes to ~100 early May then crashes
June	BEAR	H1 trough. 34-YR at ~30–35. 15-YR at ~25–35. 5-YR at ~30–35. All three at local lows. The H2 winter heating demand recovery is being set up. Late June / early July is the inflection point — watch for the reversal.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑	H1 TROUGH — all three at seasonal lows; July reversal setup
July	BULL	H2 recovery begins as the market prices in winter heating demand. 34-YR rising from ~30 toward ~55. 15-YR from ~30 toward ~50. 5-YR also recovering. This is the H2 long entry — hold through the October annual peak.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	LONG — H2 heating demand recovery; all TFs rising from June lows
August	BULL	H2 heating demand surge in full force. 15-YR approaches ~80 by end of August. 34-YR climbing toward ~70–75. 5-YR also strong. October annual peak is the target. Very similar to ULSD's August pattern.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	LONG — H2 surge accelerates; 15-YR approaching ~80
September	BULL	September is the peak acceleration month for Gas Oil's H2 bull. 15-YR surges toward 90–95. 34-YR surging strongly toward ~85–90. 5-YR at ~65–70. Full TF alignment. The October annual peak for both 15-YR and 34-YR is approaching. Highest conviction long of H2.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	LONG — primary H2 bull; 15-YR and 34-YR surging toward 100
October	BULL	Both the 15-YR AND 34-YR hit 100 simultaneously in October — a dual annual peak that is the most important seasonal moment for Gas Oil. 5-YR also peaks at ~75–80. Exit longs when 15-YR/34-YR reach 100 and flip short. The winter demand premium is fully priced. Rollover is swift.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	15-YR AND 34-YR BOTH AT 100 → FLIP SHORT; dual annual peak
November	BEAR	Continued seasonal decline from October's dual 100 peak. 34-YR falls from ~100 to ~70–75. 15-YR from ~100 to ~70–75. 5-YR from ~75 to ~55–60. All three declining. The winter demand premium has been fully sold out of the seasonal.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	SHORT — sustained rollover from October dual peak
December	BEAR	Continued orderly seasonal decline. 34-YR falls to ~66.32 by year-end. 15-YR to ~62.43. 5-YR to ~46.77. The decline is moderate and orderly — same pattern as ULSD, reflecting the shared middle-distillate seasonal structure. Year ends at mid-to-high range.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	BEAR — moderate year-end decline; 34-YR settles at 66.32

Month	Bias	Overview	Weekly Detail	Notes
January	BEAR	34-YR begins January around ~20 and falls toward its annual low. 15-YR near 5–10 and declining. 5-YR starts at ~25 but also declining. All three heading toward the February trough. Gas Oil is a middle-distillate contract closely correlated with ULSD — same pattern, different exchange.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	BEAR — 34-YR falling toward annual low; 15-YR and 5-YR weak
February	CHOP	34-YR hits its annual low (~5–10) in early February. 15-YR near 0. 5-YR near 0. This is the deepest seasonal trough for Gas Oil's long-term average — identical timing to ULSD. Recovery begins mid-month. Confirm the turn before initiating longs.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	TROUGH — 34-YR annual low ~5–10; all three at annual lows
March	BULL	Recovery gains momentum. 34-YR climbs from ~10 to ~30–35. 15-YR surges aggressively from ~5 to ~55–60. 5-YR recovering from near 0 to ~20–25. Spring diesel/heating demand drives the recovery. Build position for the April-May peak zone.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	LONG — H1 spring recovery; 15-YR surges strongly
April	BULL	15-YR peaks at ~85–90 in April. 34-YR still rising toward ~50. 5-YR approaching ~100 in early May. April is the peak zone for the 15-YR — manage longs tightly in the second half of April. The May 5-YR spike is the final seasonal high.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~	LONG → TOP WATCH — 15-YR peaks ~85–90; 5-YR approaching ~100
May	CHOP	5-YR spikes to ~100 in very early May then crashes hard — identical to the CL pattern. 15-YR falling from its April peak. 34-YR choppy. This is the most treacherous month for Gas Oil — stay flat. The H1 seasonal bull is over.	Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	VOLATILE — 5-YR spikes to ~100 early May then crashes
June	BEAR	H1 trough. 34-YR at ~30–35. 15-YR at ~25–35. 5-YR at ~30–35. All three at local lows. The H2 winter heating demand recovery is being set up. Late June / early July is the inflection point — watch for the reversal.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑	H1 TROUGH — all three at seasonal lows; July reversal setup
July	BULL	H2 recovery begins as the market prices in winter heating demand. 34-YR rising from ~30 toward ~55. 15-YR from ~30 toward ~50. 5-YR also recovering. This is the H2 long entry — hold through the October annual peak.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	LONG — H2 heating demand recovery; all TFs rising from June lows
August	BULL	H2 heating demand surge in full force. 15-YR approaches ~80 by end of August. 34-YR climbing toward ~70–75. 5-YR also strong. October annual peak is the target. Very similar to ULSD's August pattern.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	LONG — H2 surge accelerates; 15-YR approaching ~80
September	BULL	September is the peak acceleration month for Gas Oil's H2 bull. 15-YR surges toward 90–95. 34-YR surging strongly toward ~85–90. 5-YR at ~65–70. Full TF alignment. The October annual peak for both 15-YR and 34-YR is approaching. Highest conviction long of H2.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑	LONG — primary H2 bull; 15-YR and 34-YR surging toward 100
October	BULL	Both the 15-YR AND 34-YR hit 100 simultaneously in October — a dual annual peak that is the most important seasonal moment for Gas Oil. 5-YR also peaks at ~75–80. Exit longs when 15-YR/34-YR reach 100 and flip short. The winter demand premium is fully priced. Rollover is swift.	Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	15-YR AND 34-YR BOTH AT 100 → FLIP SHORT; dual annual peak
November	BEAR	Continued seasonal decline from October's dual 100 peak. 34-YR falls from ~100 to ~70–75. 15-YR from ~100 to ~70–75. 5-YR from ~75 to ~55–60. All three declining. The winter demand premium has been fully sold out of the seasonal.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	SHORT — sustained rollover from October dual peak
December	BEAR	Continued orderly seasonal decline. 34-YR falls to ~66.32 by year-end. 15-YR to ~62.43. 5-YR to ~46.77. The decline is moderate and orderly — same pattern as ULSD, reflecting the shared middle-distillate seasonal structure. Year ends at mid-to-high range.	Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓	BEAR — moderate year-end decline; 34-YR settles at 66.32