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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 40-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | 5-YR starts January at ~75–80 (annual high for 5-YR) and begins declining. 40-YR at ~65–70. 15-YR at ~60–65. Divergence between near-term (5-YR declining from highs) and long-term (40-YR stable). No clean combined signal. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
CHOP — 5-YR starts high and declines; 40-YR mid-range; divergent |
| February | BEAR | All three TFs declining. 40-YR from ~65 to ~55. 15-YR from ~60 to ~50. 5-YR falling sharply from ~70 to ~50. The feedlot placement-cycle pressure builds as spring grazing season approaches. Short bias; April trough in view. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — all TFs declining toward April annual low |
| March | BEAR | Approaching the annual trough. 40-YR falling from ~55 to ~20–25. 15-YR falling to ~20. 5-YR falling to ~25–30. The trough for Feeder Cattle is in April — spring grass-fed demand weak before growing season. Hold shorts; maximum compression coming. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — near-trough; all TFs falling toward April annual low |
| April | BEAR | ANNUAL TROUGH: 40-YR at ~10–15 (near absolute low). 15-YR at ~10–15. 5-YR at ~15–20. This is the year's floor for all three TFs simultaneously. The July 15-YR recovery to 100 is the single most powerful recovery move in feeder cattle. Begin covering shorts in April. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
ANNUAL LOW — 40-YR near 10–15; most extreme trough in meats |
| May | BULL | Strong recovery from April annual low. 40-YR from ~15 to ~55. 15-YR from ~15 to ~55. 5-YR from ~20 to ~50. Spring grass season demand surge and pasture-to-feedlot transition drives the seasonal. The July 15-YR spike to 100 is loading. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — strong recovery from April trough; all TFs surging |
| June | BULL | Continued strong recovery. 40-YR to ~70. 15-YR surging to ~75–80. 5-YR to ~60. The July annual high for 15-YR is approaching. Hold longs and prepare to exit when 15-YR reaches 100 in July. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — continued bull; 15-YR approaching 80; July 100 in sight |
| July | BEAR | 15-YR hits 100 in July — the ANNUAL HIGH for 15-YR in feeder cattle. 40-YR also peaks around ~80–85. 5-YR peaks slightly earlier (~90) and begins declining. This is the primary exit signal: 15-YR at 100 → EXIT ALL LONGS AND FLIP SHORT. 5-YR hits near-0 by October. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
15-YR HITS 100 — ANNUAL HIGH; FLIP SHORT; 5-YR peaks first |
| August | BEAR | Post-peak decline. 40-YR from ~85 to ~55. 15-YR from ~100 to ~65. 5-YR from ~90 to ~45. Hot summer feedlot stress, high grain costs, and reduced demand drive the seasonal bear. October 5-YR near-0 is the target. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — post-July-peak bear; all TFs declining toward autumn lows |
| September | BEAR | Continued decline. 40-YR at ~45. 15-YR at ~50. 5-YR approaching ~15–20. The autumn feedlot season drives supply pressure. October 5-YR trough is the target for covering shorts. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ~ |
SHORT — approaching October trough; 5-YR heading toward near 0 |
| October | BEAR | 5-YR reaches near 0 — its autumn trough. 40-YR and 15-YR at ~40–50 (mid-range). Mixed signals: 5-YR bottoming, 40-YR and 15-YR beginning to firm. Cover remaining shorts and begin scaling longs for the year-end recovery. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
5-YR NEAR TROUGH; recovery loading for Nov-Dec |
| November | BULL | Year-end recovery continues. 40-YR recovering to ~60. 15-YR recovering to ~65. 5-YR recovering to ~30. December targets: 40-YR=69.63, 15-YR=68.86, 5-YR=35.31. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — year-end recovery; 40-YR and 15-YR heading to reference |
| December | BULL | Year-end recovery completes. 40-YR=69.63. 15-YR=68.86. 5-YR=35.31 (still below mid-range — 5-YR did not recover to its January starting level). The feeder cattle seasonal year-end is moderate — strongest signal remains the Jul peak and April trough. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
LONG → YEAR-END; settles at 40-YR=69.63/15-YR=68.86/5-YR=35.31 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | CHOP | 5-YR starts January at ~75–80 (annual high for 5-YR) and begins declining. 40-YR at ~65–70. 15-YR at ~60–65. Divergence between near-term (5-YR declining from highs) and long-term (40-YR stable). No clean combined signal. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓ |
CHOP — 5-YR starts high and declines; 40-YR mid-range; divergent |
| February | BEAR | All three TFs declining. 40-YR from ~65 to ~55. 15-YR from ~60 to ~50. 5-YR falling sharply from ~70 to ~50. The feedlot placement-cycle pressure builds as spring grazing season approaches. Short bias; April trough in view. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — all TFs declining toward April annual low |
| March | BEAR | Approaching the annual trough. 40-YR falling from ~55 to ~20–25. 15-YR falling to ~20. 5-YR falling to ~25–30. The trough for Feeder Cattle is in April — spring grass-fed demand weak before growing season. Hold shorts; maximum compression coming. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — near-trough; all TFs falling toward April annual low |
| April | BEAR | ANNUAL TROUGH: 40-YR at ~10–15 (near absolute low). 15-YR at ~10–15. 5-YR at ~15–20. This is the year's floor for all three TFs simultaneously. The July 15-YR recovery to 100 is the single most powerful recovery move in feeder cattle. Begin covering shorts in April. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
ANNUAL LOW — 40-YR near 10–15; most extreme trough in meats |
| May | BULL | Strong recovery from April annual low. 40-YR from ~15 to ~55. 15-YR from ~15 to ~55. 5-YR from ~20 to ~50. Spring grass season demand surge and pasture-to-feedlot transition drives the seasonal. The July 15-YR spike to 100 is loading. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — strong recovery from April trough; all TFs surging |
| June | BULL | Continued strong recovery. 40-YR to ~70. 15-YR surging to ~75–80. 5-YR to ~60. The July annual high for 15-YR is approaching. Hold longs and prepare to exit when 15-YR reaches 100 in July. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — continued bull; 15-YR approaching 80; July 100 in sight |
| July | BULL | 15-YR hits 100 in July — the ANNUAL HIGH for 15-YR in feeder cattle. 40-YR also peaks around ~80–85. 5-YR peaks slightly earlier (~90) and begins declining. This is the primary exit signal: 15-YR at 100 → EXIT ALL LONGS AND FLIP SHORT. 5-YR hits near-0 by October. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
15-YR HITS 100 — ANNUAL HIGH; FLIP SHORT; 5-YR peaks first |
| August | BEAR | Post-peak decline. 40-YR from ~85 to ~55. 15-YR from ~100 to ~65. 5-YR from ~90 to ~45. Hot summer feedlot stress, high grain costs, and reduced demand drive the seasonal bear. October 5-YR near-0 is the target. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — post-July-peak bear; all TFs declining toward autumn lows |
| September | BEAR | Continued decline. 40-YR at ~45. 15-YR at ~50. 5-YR approaching ~15–20. The autumn feedlot season drives supply pressure. October 5-YR trough is the target for covering shorts. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
SHORT — approaching October trough; 5-YR heading toward near 0 |
| October | CHOP | 5-YR reaches near 0 — its autumn trough. 40-YR and 15-YR at ~40–50 (mid-range). Mixed signals: 5-YR bottoming, 40-YR and 15-YR beginning to firm. Cover remaining shorts and begin scaling longs for the year-end recovery. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
5-YR NEAR TROUGH; recovery loading for Nov-Dec |
| November | BULL | Year-end recovery continues. 40-YR recovering to ~60. 15-YR recovering to ~65. 5-YR recovering to ~30. December targets: 40-YR=69.63, 15-YR=68.86, 5-YR=35.31. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — year-end recovery; 40-YR and 15-YR heading to reference |
| December | BULL | Year-end recovery completes. 40-YR=69.63. 15-YR=68.86. 5-YR=35.31 (still below mid-range — 5-YR did not recover to its January starting level). The feeder cattle seasonal year-end is moderate — strongest signal remains the Jul peak and April trough. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
LONG → YEAR-END; settles at 40-YR=69.63/15-YR=68.86/5-YR=35.31 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | CHOP | 5-YR starts January at ~75–80 (annual high for 5-YR) and begins declining. 40-YR at ~65–70. 15-YR at ~60–65. Divergence between near-term (5-YR declining from highs) and long-term (40-YR stable). No clean combined signal. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
CHOP — 5-YR starts high and declines; 40-YR mid-range; divergent |
| February | BEAR | All three TFs declining. 40-YR from ~65 to ~55. 15-YR from ~60 to ~50. 5-YR falling sharply from ~70 to ~50. The feedlot placement-cycle pressure builds as spring grazing season approaches. Short bias; April trough in view. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — all TFs declining toward April annual low |
| March | BEAR | Approaching the annual trough. 40-YR falling from ~55 to ~20–25. 15-YR falling to ~20. 5-YR falling to ~25–30. The trough for Feeder Cattle is in April — spring grass-fed demand weak before growing season. Hold shorts; maximum compression coming. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — near-trough; all TFs falling toward April annual low |
| April | BEAR | ANNUAL TROUGH: 40-YR at ~10–15 (near absolute low). 15-YR at ~10–15. 5-YR at ~15–20. This is the year's floor for all three TFs simultaneously. The July 15-YR recovery to 100 is the single most powerful recovery move in feeder cattle. Begin covering shorts in April. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
ANNUAL LOW — 40-YR near 10–15; most extreme trough in meats |
| May | BULL | Strong recovery from April annual low. 40-YR from ~15 to ~55. 15-YR from ~15 to ~55. 5-YR from ~20 to ~50. Spring grass season demand surge and pasture-to-feedlot transition drives the seasonal. The July 15-YR spike to 100 is loading. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — strong recovery from April trough; all TFs surging |
| June | BULL | Continued strong recovery. 40-YR to ~70. 15-YR surging to ~75–80. 5-YR to ~60. The July annual high for 15-YR is approaching. Hold longs and prepare to exit when 15-YR reaches 100 in July. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — continued bull; 15-YR approaching 80; July 100 in sight |
| July | BULL | 15-YR hits 100 in July — the ANNUAL HIGH for 15-YR in feeder cattle. 40-YR also peaks around ~80–85. 5-YR peaks slightly earlier (~90) and begins declining. This is the primary exit signal: 15-YR at 100 → EXIT ALL LONGS AND FLIP SHORT. 5-YR hits near-0 by October. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
15-YR HITS 100 — ANNUAL HIGH; FLIP SHORT; 5-YR peaks first |
| August | BEAR | Post-peak decline. 40-YR from ~85 to ~55. 15-YR from ~100 to ~65. 5-YR from ~90 to ~45. Hot summer feedlot stress, high grain costs, and reduced demand drive the seasonal bear. October 5-YR near-0 is the target. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — post-July-peak bear; all TFs declining toward autumn lows |
| September | BEAR | Continued decline. 40-YR at ~45. 15-YR at ~50. 5-YR approaching ~15–20. The autumn feedlot season drives supply pressure. October 5-YR trough is the target for covering shorts. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
SHORT — approaching October trough; 5-YR heading toward near 0 |
| October | CHOP | 5-YR reaches near 0 — its autumn trough. 40-YR and 15-YR at ~40–50 (mid-range). Mixed signals: 5-YR bottoming, 40-YR and 15-YR beginning to firm. Cover remaining shorts and begin scaling longs for the year-end recovery. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
5-YR NEAR TROUGH; recovery loading for Nov-Dec |
| November | BULL | Year-end recovery continues. 40-YR recovering to ~60. 15-YR recovering to ~65. 5-YR recovering to ~30. December targets: 40-YR=69.63, 15-YR=68.86, 5-YR=35.31. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — year-end recovery; 40-YR and 15-YR heading to reference |
| December | BULL | Year-end recovery completes. 40-YR=69.63. 15-YR=68.86. 5-YR=35.31 (still below mid-range — 5-YR did not recover to its January starting level). The feeder cattle seasonal year-end is moderate — strongest signal remains the Jul peak and April trough. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
LONG → YEAR-END; settles at 40-YR=69.63/15-YR=68.86/5-YR=35.31 |