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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 40-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | CHOP | All three TFs around 35–40. 5-YR has a brief early-January spike then falls back to ~30. No strong directional bias — the market is in transition between the prior year's cotton cycle and the new crop planting season pressure building in February. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — all TFs mid-range, no clean seasonal edge |
| February | BULL | THE defining February move: 15-YR surges from ~35 to ~80–85 — new crop planting-season demand drives the seasonal. 40-YR also rises to ~50. 5-YR recovers to ~55–60. The long-term seasonal is powered by new-crop positioning ahead of Southern US planting. High conviction long. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 15-YR surges to ~80–85; new crop planting season demand |
| March | BULL | 15-YR holds around 80. 40-YR rises to ~80–85. 5-YR at ~55–65. The planting season bull is in full force. Longs from February should be held. Begin planning the April exit when 5-YR approaches 100. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — broad bull maintained; all TFs at elevated levels |
| April | BULL | THE seasonal peak for cotton. 5-YR spikes to near 100. 40-YR at ~85. 15-YR at ~80–85. All three TFs at elevated levels simultaneously — the planting-season premium is fully priced. The May-September extended bear begins from this peak. Exit longs aggressively in April and flip short. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
PEAK → FLIP SHORT — 5-YR spikes to ~100; multi-TF seasonal top |
| May | BEAR | Extended bear phase begins post-peak. All three TFs declining from their April highs. 40-YR from ~85 toward ~65. 15-YR from ~80 toward ~60. 5-YR crashing from 100. The harvest-season supply build begins to be priced in. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — extended bear begins; planting complete, supply builds |
| June | BEAR | Extended bear continues. 40-YR falling from ~65 to ~50. 15-YR from ~60 to ~50. 5-YR weak (~25–30). Crop condition reports drive seasonal pressure as summer growing season reveals potential yield. Short bias throughout. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — mid-bear; 40-YR falling toward 50; crop report pressure |
| July | BEAR | Harvest season bear acceleration. 40-YR falls to ~40–45. 15-YR to ~45–50. 5-YR to ~35–40. The approach to September's annual low continues. Cotton's extended bear is unique in the commodity complex — 5 consecutive months of decline. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — harvest season bear; all TFs continuing lower |
| August | BEAR | All three TFs declining toward the September annual low. 40-YR falls to ~20–25. 15-YR to ~20–25. 5-YR to ~15–20. The harvest is being picked and supply fears peak. Almost at the seasonal floor. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — near-trough; all three heading to September annual low |
| September | BEAR | All three TFs at near-annual lows (~10–15). The extended bear is exhausting itself. Late September marks the final leg down before October's explosive reversal. Do not initiate new shorts here — the reversal risk is extreme. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ~ |
NEAR TROUGH — all TFs approaching absolute annual lows |
| October | BULL | THE year's most extreme reversal. ALL THREE TFs crash to near 0 simultaneously in early October, then EXPLODE upward. 40-YR from ~5 to ~35–40. 15-YR from near 0 to ~55. 5-YR from near 0 to ~40. The harvest is complete, supply fears recede, and new-crop demand begins. Buy the October trough aggressively. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
THREE-WAY NEAR-0 → EXPLOSIVE RECOVERY; highest-conviction reversal |
| November | BULL | Strong year-end recovery continuation. 40-YR from ~35 to ~45–50. 15-YR from ~55 to ~65. 5-YR from ~40 to ~50. All three TFs recovering strongly. December target values are 40-YR=53.11, 15-YR=72.54, 5-YR=52.95. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — strong recovery continues; all TFs heading to year-end reference |
| December | BULL | Year-end recovery completes. 40-YR reaches ~53.11 (reference). 15-YR reaches ~72.54 (above mid-range — new crop demand still elevated). 5-YR reaches ~52.95. All three TFs settled at mid-to-high levels. The cotton seasonal year ends with the new crop demand premium priced in for January delivery. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG — year-end recovery; settles at 53.11/72.54/52.95 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | CHOP | All three TFs around 35–40. 5-YR has a brief early-January spike then falls back to ~30. No strong directional bias — the market is in transition between the prior year's cotton cycle and the new crop planting season pressure building in February. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
CHOP — all TFs mid-range, no clean seasonal edge |
| February | BULL | THE defining February move: 15-YR surges from ~35 to ~80–85 — new crop planting-season demand drives the seasonal. 40-YR also rises to ~50. 5-YR recovers to ~55–60. The long-term seasonal is powered by new-crop positioning ahead of Southern US planting. High conviction long. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 15-YR surges to ~80–85; new crop planting season demand |
| March | BULL | 15-YR holds around 80. 40-YR rises to ~80–85. 5-YR at ~55–65. The planting season bull is in full force. Longs from February should be held. Begin planning the April exit when 5-YR approaches 100. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — broad bull maintained; all TFs at elevated levels |
| April | BULL | THE seasonal peak for cotton. 5-YR spikes to near 100. 40-YR at ~85. 15-YR at ~80–85. All three TFs at elevated levels simultaneously — the planting-season premium is fully priced. The May-September extended bear begins from this peak. Exit longs aggressively in April and flip short. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
PEAK → FLIP SHORT — 5-YR spikes to ~100; multi-TF seasonal top |
| May | BEAR | Extended bear phase begins post-peak. All three TFs declining from their April highs. 40-YR from ~85 toward ~65. 15-YR from ~80 toward ~60. 5-YR crashing from 100. The harvest-season supply build begins to be priced in. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — extended bear begins; planting complete, supply builds |
| June | BEAR | Extended bear continues. 40-YR falling from ~65 to ~50. 15-YR from ~60 to ~50. 5-YR weak (~25–30). Crop condition reports drive seasonal pressure as summer growing season reveals potential yield. Short bias throughout. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — mid-bear; 40-YR falling toward 50; crop report pressure |
| July | BEAR | Harvest season bear acceleration. 40-YR falls to ~40–45. 15-YR to ~45–50. 5-YR to ~35–40. The approach to September's annual low continues. Cotton's extended bear is unique in the commodity complex — 5 consecutive months of decline. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — harvest season bear; all TFs continuing lower |
| August | BEAR | All three TFs declining toward the September annual low. 40-YR falls to ~20–25. 15-YR to ~20–25. 5-YR to ~15–20. The harvest is being picked and supply fears peak. Almost at the seasonal floor. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — near-trough; all three heading to September annual low |
| September | BEAR | All three TFs at near-annual lows (~10–15). The extended bear is exhausting itself. Late September marks the final leg down before October's explosive reversal. Do not initiate new shorts here — the reversal risk is extreme. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ~ |
NEAR TROUGH — all TFs approaching absolute annual lows |
| October | BULL | THE year's most extreme reversal. ALL THREE TFs crash to near 0 simultaneously in early October, then EXPLODE upward. 40-YR from ~5 to ~35–40. 15-YR from near 0 to ~55. 5-YR from near 0 to ~40. The harvest is complete, supply fears recede, and new-crop demand begins. Buy the October trough aggressively. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
THREE-WAY NEAR-0 → EXPLOSIVE RECOVERY; highest-conviction reversal |
| November | BULL | Strong year-end recovery continuation. 40-YR from ~35 to ~45–50. 15-YR from ~55 to ~65. 5-YR from ~40 to ~50. All three TFs recovering strongly. December target values are 40-YR=53.11, 15-YR=72.54, 5-YR=52.95. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — strong recovery continues; all TFs heading to year-end reference |
| December | BULL | Year-end recovery completes. 40-YR reaches ~53.11 (reference). 15-YR reaches ~72.54 (above mid-range — new crop demand still elevated). 5-YR reaches ~52.95. All three TFs settled at mid-to-high levels. The cotton seasonal year ends with the new crop demand premium priced in for January delivery. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG — year-end recovery; settles at 53.11/72.54/52.95 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | CHOP | All three TFs around 35–40. 5-YR has a brief early-January spike then falls back to ~30. No strong directional bias — the market is in transition between the prior year's cotton cycle and the new crop planting season pressure building in February. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP — all TFs mid-range, no clean seasonal edge |
| February | BULL | THE defining February move: 15-YR surges from ~35 to ~80–85 — new crop planting-season demand drives the seasonal. 40-YR also rises to ~50. 5-YR recovers to ~55–60. The long-term seasonal is powered by new-crop positioning ahead of Southern US planting. High conviction long. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — 15-YR surges to ~80–85; new crop planting season demand |
| March | BULL | 15-YR holds around 80. 40-YR rises to ~80–85. 5-YR at ~55–65. The planting season bull is in full force. Longs from February should be held. Begin planning the April exit when 5-YR approaches 100. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — broad bull maintained; all TFs at elevated levels |
| April | BULL | THE seasonal peak for cotton. 5-YR spikes to near 100. 40-YR at ~85. 15-YR at ~80–85. All three TFs at elevated levels simultaneously — the planting-season premium is fully priced. The May-September extended bear begins from this peak. Exit longs aggressively in April and flip short. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
PEAK → FLIP SHORT — 5-YR spikes to ~100; multi-TF seasonal top |
| May | BEAR | Extended bear phase begins post-peak. All three TFs declining from their April highs. 40-YR from ~85 toward ~65. 15-YR from ~80 toward ~60. 5-YR crashing from 100. The harvest-season supply build begins to be priced in. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — extended bear begins; planting complete, supply builds |
| June | BEAR | Extended bear continues. 40-YR falling from ~65 to ~50. 15-YR from ~60 to ~50. 5-YR weak (~25–30). Crop condition reports drive seasonal pressure as summer growing season reveals potential yield. Short bias throughout. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — mid-bear; 40-YR falling toward 50; crop report pressure |
| July | BEAR | Harvest season bear acceleration. 40-YR falls to ~40–45. 15-YR to ~45–50. 5-YR to ~35–40. The approach to September's annual low continues. Cotton's extended bear is unique in the commodity complex — 5 consecutive months of decline. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — harvest season bear; all TFs continuing lower |
| August | BEAR | All three TFs declining toward the September annual low. 40-YR falls to ~20–25. 15-YR to ~20–25. 5-YR to ~15–20. The harvest is being picked and supply fears peak. Almost at the seasonal floor. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — near-trough; all three heading to September annual low |
| September | BEAR | All three TFs at near-annual lows (~10–15). The extended bear is exhausting itself. Late September marks the final leg down before October's explosive reversal. Do not initiate new shorts here — the reversal risk is extreme. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ~ |
NEAR TROUGH — all TFs approaching absolute annual lows |
| October | BULL | THE year's most extreme reversal. ALL THREE TFs crash to near 0 simultaneously in early October, then EXPLODE upward. 40-YR from ~5 to ~35–40. 15-YR from near 0 to ~55. 5-YR from near 0 to ~40. The harvest is complete, supply fears recede, and new-crop demand begins. Buy the October trough aggressively. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
THREE-WAY NEAR-0 → EXPLOSIVE RECOVERY; highest-conviction reversal |
| November | BULL | Strong year-end recovery continuation. 40-YR from ~35 to ~45–50. 15-YR from ~55 to ~65. 5-YR from ~40 to ~50. All three TFs recovering strongly. December target values are 40-YR=53.11, 15-YR=72.54, 5-YR=52.95. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — strong recovery continues; all TFs heading to year-end reference |
| December | BULL | Year-end recovery completes. 40-YR reaches ~53.11 (reference). 15-YR reaches ~72.54 (above mid-range — new crop demand still elevated). 5-YR reaches ~52.95. All three TFs settled at mid-to-high levels. The cotton seasonal year ends with the new crop demand premium priced in for January delivery. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG — year-end recovery; settles at 53.11/72.54/52.95 |