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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 37-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | All TFs languish near annual lows (5–15 range). Brief 5-YR spike in Wk1 is a headfake — crashes immediately. No long bias; seasonal bottom still forming. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
AVOID — annual lows zone, no seasonal edge |
| February | CHOP | Annual low for short TFs in early February (near 0). 37-YR also dips to its lowest. Recovery begins mid-Feb but conviction is low. Watch for Wk3 reversal candle to confirm seasonal turn. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
TROUGH — annual low forms early Feb, then basing |
| March | BULL | Strong broad bull. All three TFs rally steeply from February lows. By month-end: 37-YR ~50–55, 15-YR ~65, 5-YR ~35–40. This is the primary seasonal long entry of H1. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — broad seasonal bull, all TFs rising steeply |
| April | BULL | 15-YR reaches its H1 seasonal peak (~95–100) in mid-April. 37-YR at ~75–80. 5-YR still rising. Late April begins the seasonal top formation. Manage longs; 15-YR peaking is the first caution signal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG (early) → TOP WATCH (late) — 15-YR peaks mid-April |
| May | CHOP | Most volatile month. 5-YR spikes to ~100 in early May then crashes sharply. 15-YR falling from its April peak. 37-YR choppy around 70–80 before dipping. No clean directional edge — stay flat. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
VOLATILE — 5-YR spike to 100 then crash; avoid new longs |
| June | CHOP | 15-YR and 37-YR have a secondary bounce to ~80–85 in mid-June. 5-YR remains weak (~40–50). The bounce fades by late June. No sustained directional bias — secondary highs often provide short entries. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
CHOP — secondary bounce then fade; no clean edge |
| July | BEAR | Summer low. 5-YR weakest (~40), 37-YR and 15-YR also dip. Trough forms mid-to-late July. Late-July reversal candle marks the H2 seasonal entry setup. This is NOT a high-conviction short — it's a trough to watch for the August long. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
SUMMER LOW — trough forming, watch for late-July reversal |
| August | BULL | H2 recovery gains traction. 37-YR rises from ~55 to ~80. 15-YR from ~55 to ~70. 5-YR from ~40 to ~60. The bull is building toward the 37-YR seasonal high in September. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 recovery rally, all TFs rising |
| September | BULL | The year's defining seasonal trade. 37-YR surges to its annual high (~95–100) in late September. 15-YR peaks ~75–80. 5-YR at ~70–75. Full TF alignment — this is the highest-conviction long period in the crude oil seasonal. Late September the 37-YR peaks and the reversal begins. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG — 37-YR annual high; highest-conviction trade of the year |
| October | BEAR | Major seasonal reversal from September's 37-YR annual high. 37-YR falls from 100 to ~65–70. 15-YR from ~75 to ~60–65. 5-YR from ~70 to ~40–45. The bear is broad and sustained. High-conviction short month. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — major rollover from September annual high |
| November | BEAR | Continued seasonal decline. 37-YR falls from ~65 to ~50. 15-YR ~60. 5-YR ~40–45. All three declining. The December cascade toward annual lows is approaching. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — sustained bear continuation after October rollover |
| December | CHOP | 37-YR experiences its most extreme intra-month move of the year — cascades from ~50 to near 0–15 in mid-December, then partially recovers to ~46 by year-end. Short TFs choppy. Avoid new positions; seasonal ambiguity. Year ends with 37-YR=46.27, 15-YR=62.73, 5-YR=44.87. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
BEAR/VOLATILE — 37-YR crashes to near 0 mid-Dec, recovers to 46 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | All TFs languish near annual lows (5–15 range). Brief 5-YR spike in Wk1 is a headfake — crashes immediately. No long bias; seasonal bottom still forming. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
AVOID — annual lows zone, no seasonal edge |
| February | CHOP | Annual low for short TFs in early February (near 0). 37-YR also dips to its lowest. Recovery begins mid-Feb but conviction is low. Watch for Wk3 reversal candle to confirm seasonal turn. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
TROUGH — annual low forms early Feb, then basing |
| March | BULL | Strong broad bull. All three TFs rally steeply from February lows. By month-end: 37-YR ~50–55, 15-YR ~65, 5-YR ~35–40. This is the primary seasonal long entry of H1. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — broad seasonal bull, all TFs rising steeply |
| April | BULL | 15-YR reaches its H1 seasonal peak (~95–100) in mid-April. 37-YR at ~75–80. 5-YR still rising. Late April begins the seasonal top formation. Manage longs; 15-YR peaking is the first caution signal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
LONG (early) → TOP WATCH (late) — 15-YR peaks mid-April |
| May | BEAR | Most volatile month. 5-YR spikes to ~100 in early May then crashes sharply. 15-YR falling from its April peak. 37-YR choppy around 70–80 before dipping. No clean directional edge — stay flat. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
VOLATILE — 5-YR spike to 100 then crash; avoid new longs |
| June | CHOP | 15-YR and 37-YR have a secondary bounce to ~80–85 in mid-June. 5-YR remains weak (~40–50). The bounce fades by late June. No sustained directional bias — secondary highs often provide short entries. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
CHOP — secondary bounce then fade; no clean edge |
| July | BEAR | Summer low. 5-YR weakest (~40), 37-YR and 15-YR also dip. Trough forms mid-to-late July. Late-July reversal candle marks the H2 seasonal entry setup. This is NOT a high-conviction short — it's a trough to watch for the August long. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
SUMMER LOW — trough forming, watch for late-July reversal |
| August | BULL | H2 recovery gains traction. 37-YR rises from ~55 to ~80. 15-YR from ~55 to ~70. 5-YR from ~40 to ~60. The bull is building toward the 37-YR seasonal high in September. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 recovery rally, all TFs rising |
| September | BULL | The year's defining seasonal trade. 37-YR surges to its annual high (~95–100) in late September. 15-YR peaks ~75–80. 5-YR at ~70–75. Full TF alignment — this is the highest-conviction long period in the crude oil seasonal. Late September the 37-YR peaks and the reversal begins. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG — 37-YR annual high; highest-conviction trade of the year |
| October | BEAR | Major seasonal reversal from September's 37-YR annual high. 37-YR falls from 100 to ~65–70. 15-YR from ~75 to ~60–65. 5-YR from ~70 to ~40–45. The bear is broad and sustained. High-conviction short month. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — major rollover from September annual high |
| November | BEAR | Continued seasonal decline. 37-YR falls from ~65 to ~50. 15-YR ~60. 5-YR ~40–45. All three declining. The December cascade toward annual lows is approaching. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — sustained bear continuation after October rollover |
| December | CHOP | 37-YR experiences its most extreme intra-month move of the year — cascades from ~50 to near 0–15 in mid-December, then partially recovers to ~46 by year-end. Short TFs choppy. Avoid new positions; seasonal ambiguity. Year ends with 37-YR=46.27, 15-YR=62.73, 5-YR=44.87. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
BEAR/VOLATILE — 37-YR crashes to near 0 mid-Dec, recovers to 46 |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | All TFs languish near annual lows (5–15 range). Brief 5-YR spike in Wk1 is a headfake — crashes immediately. No long bias; seasonal bottom still forming. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
AVOID — annual lows zone, no seasonal edge |
| February | CHOP | Annual low for short TFs in early February (near 0). 37-YR also dips to its lowest. Recovery begins mid-Feb but conviction is low. Watch for Wk3 reversal candle to confirm seasonal turn. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
TROUGH — annual low forms early Feb, then basing |
| March | BULL | Strong broad bull. All three TFs rally steeply from February lows. By month-end: 37-YR ~50–55, 15-YR ~65, 5-YR ~35–40. This is the primary seasonal long entry of H1. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — broad seasonal bull, all TFs rising steeply |
| April | BULL | 15-YR reaches its H1 seasonal peak (~95–100) in mid-April. 37-YR at ~75–80. 5-YR still rising. Late April begins the seasonal top formation. Manage longs; 15-YR peaking is the first caution signal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG (early) → TOP WATCH (late) — 15-YR peaks mid-April |
| May | CHOP | Most volatile month. 5-YR spikes to ~100 in early May then crashes sharply. 15-YR falling from its April peak. 37-YR choppy around 70–80 before dipping. No clean directional edge — stay flat. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ~ |
VOLATILE — 5-YR spike to 100 then crash; avoid new longs |
| June | CHOP | 15-YR and 37-YR have a secondary bounce to ~80–85 in mid-June. 5-YR remains weak (~40–50). The bounce fades by late June. No sustained directional bias — secondary highs often provide short entries. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
CHOP — secondary bounce then fade; no clean edge |
| July | BEAR | Summer low. 5-YR weakest (~40), 37-YR and 15-YR also dip. Trough forms mid-to-late July. Late-July reversal candle marks the H2 seasonal entry setup. This is NOT a high-conviction short — it's a trough to watch for the August long. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
SUMMER LOW — trough forming, watch for late-July reversal |
| August | BULL | H2 recovery gains traction. 37-YR rises from ~55 to ~80. 15-YR from ~55 to ~70. 5-YR from ~40 to ~60. The bull is building toward the 37-YR seasonal high in September. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 recovery rally, all TFs rising |
| September | BULL | The year's defining seasonal trade. 37-YR surges to its annual high (~95–100) in late September. 15-YR peaks ~75–80. 5-YR at ~70–75. Full TF alignment — this is the highest-conviction long period in the crude oil seasonal. Late September the 37-YR peaks and the reversal begins. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG — 37-YR annual high; highest-conviction trade of the year |
| October | BEAR | Major seasonal reversal from September's 37-YR annual high. 37-YR falls from 100 to ~65–70. 15-YR from ~75 to ~60–65. 5-YR from ~70 to ~40–45. The bear is broad and sustained. High-conviction short month. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — major rollover from September annual high |
| November | BEAR | Continued seasonal decline. 37-YR falls from ~65 to ~50. 15-YR ~60. 5-YR ~40–45. All three declining. The December cascade toward annual lows is approaching. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — sustained bear continuation after October rollover |
| December | BEAR | 37-YR experiences its most extreme intra-month move of the year — cascades from ~50 to near 0–15 in mid-December, then partially recovers to ~46 by year-end. Short TFs choppy. Avoid new positions; seasonal ambiguity. Year ends with 37-YR=46.27, 15-YR=62.73, 5-YR=44.87. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
BEAR/VOLATILE — 37-YR crashes to near 0 mid-Dec, recovers to 46 |