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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 40-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | Opens ~70 and drops sharply all month. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | No long bias. Full Jan waterfall. |
| February | BEAR | Continuing decline. Approaching trough with 40-YR. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ~ | Late Feb possible stabilisation. |
| March | BULL | Recovers with 40-YR and 15-YR from Mar trough. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | Flip long Wk2 on trough confirmation. |
| April | BULL | Rising. Building toward May spike. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | All-month long. May is the peak. |
| May | BULL | SPIKES TO ~100 mid-May — absolute annual peak. Flip short. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | Wk1–2 long then FLIP SHORT on ~100 peak. |
| June | BEAR | Collapses from May peak. Broad post-peak waterfall. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | Hold shorts from May flip all Jun. |
| July | BEAR | Still depressed. Near multi-month lows. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ | Late Jul 5-YR begins turning toward Aug. |
| August | BULL | Recovery underway. Rising toward Sep spike. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | 5-YR in recovery all Aug. Hold longs. |
| September | BULL | Spikes to highs before 15-YR peaks. Early warning to flip. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | 5-YR peaks before 15-YR mid-Sep. Use as flip signal. |
| October | BEAR | Declining post-Sep. Following 15-YR rollover. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | Hold shorts. No relief. |
| November | BEAR | Low but stabilising late Nov as 40-YR turns up. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ | Late Nov base — prepare for Dec long. |
| December | BULL | Recovering with 40-YR and 15-YR in year-end surge. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | All-month recovery. Hold longs into year close. |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | CHOP | Low and choppy. Declining gradually. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | Weak all month. No directional edge early Jan. |
| February | BEAR | Grinding lower. Approaching trough with 40-YR. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ~ | Near lows. Watch for Mar turn. |
| March | BULL | Bottoms with 40-YR mid-Mar. Recovery follows. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | Flip long Wk2 with trough confirmation. |
| April | BULL | Rising. Building toward May peak. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | 15-YR in uptrend all Apr. |
| May | BULL | Peaks ~75 mid-May. Rolling over Wk3–4. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | Peak Wk2 ~75. Confirms short entry with 5-YR peak. |
| June | BEAR | Declining post-May. Following broad waterfall. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | Hold shorts. No Jun bounce on 15-YR. |
| July | BEAR | Depressed. Near multi-month lows. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ | Late Jul beginning to base. |
| August | BULL | Bounce beginning. Recovery building toward Sep. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | 15-YR recovering all Aug. |
| September | BULL | PEAKS ~100 mid-Sep — highest conviction flip signal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | Peak ~100 Wk2–3. Flip short immediately. |
| October | BEAR | Rolling over from Sep peak. Full waterfall. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | Hold shorts. No Oct bounce on 15-YR. |
| November | CHOP | Stabilising. Beginning to turn up late Nov with 40-YR. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | Late Nov turn — 15-YR joins 40-YR year-end rally. |
| December | BULL | Surging to ~90. Strong year-end recovery with 40-YR. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | 15-YR reaches ~90 year-end. High conviction long. |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | Opens ~75 and declines. Full bear month. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | Structural decline all Jan. |
| February | BEAR | Continues lower toward ~20–25. Near annual lows late Feb. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | Approaching absolute trough. |
| March | FLIP | ANNUAL TROUGH ~5–10 mid-Mar. Sharp reversal follows. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | 40-YR hits absolute low mid-Mar. Flip long Wk2–3. |
| April | BULL | Rising from Mar trough. Recovery building. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | All-month long on 40-YR. |
| May | BULL | Continuing higher. More moderate rise vs 5-YR spike. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ | 40-YR doesn't peak in May — stays elevated. Follow 5-YR for flip signal. |
| June | BEAR | Declining. Post-May pullback. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | Hold shorts from May 5-YR flip signal. |
| July | BEAR | Near lows ~15–20. Trough zone building. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ | 40-YR bottoms Jul. Late Jul turn up begins. |
| August | BULL | Beginning to turn up. Recovery building toward Sep. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | 40-YR in recovery all Aug. |
| September | BULL | Rising strongly. 15-YR peaks ~100 mid-Sep on 40-YR momentum. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ | 40-YR powers Sep rally. Flip short when 15-YR peaks ~100. |
| October | BEAR | Post-Sep decline. Pulling back from Sep highs. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↓ | Short bias. Mid-Oct minor stabilisation only. |
| November | BULL | BEGINS MASSIVE YEAR-END RALLY. 40-YR turns up decisively. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | Nov Wk3–4 is the entry for the Dec year-end surge. |
| December | BULL | ABSOLUTE ANNUAL PEAK ~100 at Dec 31. Highest conviction long. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ | 40-YR rockets to 100 Dec 31. Maximum seasonal tailwind. |