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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 31-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | All TFs begin the year near annual lows (5–15 range). No seasonal edge. Very similar to CL but with slightly more aggressive selling in early January. Flat or short bias. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
AVOID — annual lows zone, all TFs depressed |
| February | CHOP | Annual trough for all TFs in early February. 31-YR dips near 0. Recovery building from Wk2 onward but conviction low. Brent's 5-YR can touch 0 — more extreme trough than CL. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
TROUGH — annual low forms, recovery begins mid-month |
| March | BULL | Strong broad bull — identical dynamic to CL. All three TFs rising steeply from February lows. 31-YR reaches ~45–55 by month end. Primary seasonal long entry of H1. Buy the dips. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — primary H1 bull, broad TF alignment |
| April | BULL | 15-YR approaches its H1 peak (~95–100) in mid-April. 31-YR at ~75–80. 5-YR still rising. Late April sees top formation begin. Manage longs tightly; Brent's 15-YR peaking is the primary caution signal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG (early) → TOP WATCH — 15-YR peaks mid-April ~100 |
| May | CHOP | Extreme May volatility matching CL. 5-YR spikes to ~100 in early May then crashes. 15-YR falling from April peak. 31-YR choppy. Brent's 5-YR summer weakness is more pronounced than CL's. No directional edge — stay flat. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
VOLATILE — 5-YR spike/crash; conflicting TF signals |
| June | BEAR | Brent's 5-YR is more bearish in June (~30–35) than CL's equivalent. 31-YR and 15-YR have a secondary bounce but it fades. Summer low approaches. Brent summer weakness is the most extreme of the crude complex. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
WEAK — 5-YR more bearish than CL; secondary bounce fades |
| July | BEAR | Brent's 5-YR summer low (~20) is MORE extreme than CL's (~40) — a key differentiating feature. 31-YR and 15-YR also dip. Late-July reversal is the H2 long setup. The extreme 5-YR weakness makes the eventual reversal more powerful. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
SUMMER LOW — 5-YR hits ~20 (more extreme than CL); reversal late July |
| August | BULL | H2 recovery. 31-YR rises from ~55 to ~80. 15-YR and 5-YR also recovering. The bull builds toward the 31-YR seasonal high in September. Identical structure to CL's August recovery. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 recovery rally, all TFs rising toward Sep peak |
| September | BULL | The year's primary seasonal long trade. 31-YR surges to annual high (~95–100) in late September. 15-YR peaks ~75–80. 5-YR at ~70–75. Full alignment identical to CL. Late September 31-YR peaks and reversal begins. Brent's 31-YR high is the definitive seasonal moment. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG — 31-YR annual high; peak seasonal long of the year |
| October | BEAR | Identical to CL — major reversal from September's annual high. 31-YR falls from 100 to ~50–55 (a larger move than CL's 100→65, making Brent's October the stronger short). High conviction. Bear is broad and sustained. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — major rollover from September annual high |
| November | BEAR | Continued seasonal decline. Brent's 31-YR falls harder than CL's (reaching ~35–40 vs CL's ~50). 15-YR ~60. 5-YR ~40–45. All three declining into December. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — sustained bear; 31-YR falls to ~35–40 |
| December | CHOP | KEY DIFFERENCE FROM CL: Brent's 31-YR recovers to 62.72 at year-end (vs CL's 46.27). The 31-YR trough is less extreme, and the recovery more complete. Still choppy overall. Year ends with 31-YR=62.72, 15-YR=67.17, 5-YR=48.81. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP/RECOVERY — 31-YR recovers to 62.72; higher than CL year-end |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | All TFs begin the year near annual lows (5–15 range). No seasonal edge. Very similar to CL but with slightly more aggressive selling in early January. Flat or short bias. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
AVOID — annual lows zone, all TFs depressed |
| February | CHOP | Annual trough for all TFs in early February. 31-YR dips near 0. Recovery building from Wk2 onward but conviction low. Brent's 5-YR can touch 0 — more extreme trough than CL. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
TROUGH — annual low forms, recovery begins mid-month |
| March | BULL | Strong broad bull — identical dynamic to CL. All three TFs rising steeply from February lows. 31-YR reaches ~45–55 by month end. Primary seasonal long entry of H1. Buy the dips. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — primary H1 bull, broad TF alignment |
| April | BULL | 15-YR approaches its H1 peak (~95–100) in mid-April. 31-YR at ~75–80. 5-YR still rising. Late April sees top formation begin. Manage longs tightly; Brent's 15-YR peaking is the primary caution signal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
LONG (early) → TOP WATCH — 15-YR peaks mid-April ~100 |
| May | BEAR | Extreme May volatility matching CL. 5-YR spikes to ~100 in early May then crashes. 15-YR falling from April peak. 31-YR choppy. Brent's 5-YR summer weakness is more pronounced than CL's. No directional edge — stay flat. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
VOLATILE — 5-YR spike/crash; conflicting TF signals |
| June | CHOP | Brent's 5-YR is more bearish in June (~30–35) than CL's equivalent. 31-YR and 15-YR have a secondary bounce but it fades. Summer low approaches. Brent summer weakness is the most extreme of the crude complex. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
WEAK — 5-YR more bearish than CL; secondary bounce fades |
| July | BEAR | Brent's 5-YR summer low (~20) is MORE extreme than CL's (~40) — a key differentiating feature. 31-YR and 15-YR also dip. Late-July reversal is the H2 long setup. The extreme 5-YR weakness makes the eventual reversal more powerful. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
SUMMER LOW — 5-YR hits ~20 (more extreme than CL); reversal late July |
| August | BULL | H2 recovery. 31-YR rises from ~55 to ~80. 15-YR and 5-YR also recovering. The bull builds toward the 31-YR seasonal high in September. Identical structure to CL's August recovery. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 recovery rally, all TFs rising toward Sep peak |
| September | BULL | The year's primary seasonal long trade. 31-YR surges to annual high (~95–100) in late September. 15-YR peaks ~75–80. 5-YR at ~70–75. Full alignment identical to CL. Late September 31-YR peaks and reversal begins. Brent's 31-YR high is the definitive seasonal moment. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG — 31-YR annual high; peak seasonal long of the year |
| October | BEAR | Identical to CL — major reversal from September's annual high. 31-YR falls from 100 to ~50–55 (a larger move than CL's 100→65, making Brent's October the stronger short). High conviction. Bear is broad and sustained. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — major rollover from September annual high |
| November | BEAR | Continued seasonal decline. Brent's 31-YR falls harder than CL's (reaching ~35–40 vs CL's ~50). 15-YR ~60. 5-YR ~40–45. All three declining into December. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — sustained bear; 31-YR falls to ~35–40 |
| December | CHOP | KEY DIFFERENCE FROM CL: Brent's 31-YR recovers to 62.72 at year-end (vs CL's 46.27). The 31-YR trough is less extreme, and the recovery more complete. Still choppy overall. Year ends with 31-YR=62.72, 15-YR=67.17, 5-YR=48.81. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ~ |
CHOP/RECOVERY — 31-YR recovers to 62.72; higher than CL year-end |
| Month | Bias | Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | BEAR | All TFs begin the year near annual lows (5–15 range). No seasonal edge. Very similar to CL but with slightly more aggressive selling in early January. Flat or short bias. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
AVOID — annual lows zone, all TFs depressed |
| February | CHOP | Annual trough for all TFs in early February. 31-YR dips near 0. Recovery building from Wk2 onward but conviction low. Brent's 5-YR can touch 0 — more extreme trough than CL. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
TROUGH — annual low forms, recovery begins mid-month |
| March | BULL | Strong broad bull — identical dynamic to CL. All three TFs rising steeply from February lows. 31-YR reaches ~45–55 by month end. Primary seasonal long entry of H1. Buy the dips. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — primary H1 bull, broad TF alignment |
| April | BULL | 15-YR approaches its H1 peak (~95–100) in mid-April. 31-YR at ~75–80. 5-YR still rising. Late April sees top formation begin. Manage longs tightly; Brent's 15-YR peaking is the primary caution signal. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG (early) → TOP WATCH — 15-YR peaks mid-April ~100 |
| May | CHOP | Extreme May volatility matching CL. 5-YR spikes to ~100 in early May then crashes. 15-YR falling from April peak. 31-YR choppy. Brent's 5-YR summer weakness is more pronounced than CL's. No directional edge — stay flat. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ~ |
VOLATILE — 5-YR spike/crash; conflicting TF signals |
| June | CHOP | Brent's 5-YR is more bearish in June (~30–35) than CL's equivalent. 31-YR and 15-YR have a secondary bounce but it fades. Summer low approaches. Brent summer weakness is the most extreme of the crude complex. | Wk1 ~ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
WEAK — 5-YR more bearish than CL; secondary bounce fades |
| July | BEAR | Brent's 5-YR summer low (~20) is MORE extreme than CL's (~40) — a key differentiating feature. 31-YR and 15-YR also dip. Late-July reversal is the H2 long setup. The extreme 5-YR weakness makes the eventual reversal more powerful. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ~ Wk4 ↑ |
SUMMER LOW — 5-YR hits ~20 (more extreme than CL); reversal late July |
| August | BULL | H2 recovery. 31-YR rises from ~55 to ~80. 15-YR and 5-YR also recovering. The bull builds toward the 31-YR seasonal high in September. Identical structure to CL's August recovery. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
LONG — H2 recovery rally, all TFs rising toward Sep peak |
| September | BULL | The year's primary seasonal long trade. 31-YR surges to annual high (~95–100) in late September. 15-YR peaks ~75–80. 5-YR at ~70–75. Full alignment identical to CL. Late September 31-YR peaks and reversal begins. Brent's 31-YR high is the definitive seasonal moment. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ~ |
LONG — 31-YR annual high; peak seasonal long of the year |
| October | BEAR | Identical to CL — major reversal from September's annual high. 31-YR falls from 100 to ~50–55 (a larger move than CL's 100→65, making Brent's October the stronger short). High conviction. Bear is broad and sustained. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — major rollover from September annual high |
| November | BEAR | Continued seasonal decline. Brent's 31-YR falls harder than CL's (reaching ~35–40 vs CL's ~50). 15-YR ~60. 5-YR ~40–45. All three declining into December. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
SHORT — sustained bear; 31-YR falls to ~35–40 |
| December | CHOP | KEY DIFFERENCE FROM CL: Brent's 31-YR recovers to 62.72 at year-end (vs CL's 46.27). The 31-YR trough is less extreme, and the recovery more complete. Still choppy overall. Year ends with 31-YR=62.72, 15-YR=67.17, 5-YR=48.81. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ~ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
CHOP/RECOVERY — 31-YR recovers to 62.72; higher than CL year-end |