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| Month | 5-YR | 15-YR | 34-YR | Signal | Conviction | Trade Note |
|---|
| Period | Yearly Bias | Monthly Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan – Mar | Bullish | Strong sustained rally. AUD elevated ~80–85 range. High volatility within uptrend. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Peak of the 5-yr cycle. Entire Q1 is bullish. |
| Apr | Topping / Turn | Absolute peak hit early April (score ~100). Sharp reversal begins mid-month. | Wk1 ↑ Peak Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓↓ |
BUY Wk1, SELL Wk2–4. Most critical month of the year. |
| May – Jun | Strongly Bearish | Steep waterfall decline. One of the deepest troughs of the year. Volatile. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Hold short from Apr. Deep trough approaching Jun. |
| Jul | Choppy | Volatile recovery attempts. No clean trend. Potential dead-cat bounce. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ± Wk4 ↓ |
Avoid or trade very short-term only. |
| Aug – Sep | Bearish | Secondary leg lower. 5-yr shows continued weakness into Sep. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
Secondary bear phase. Not as steep as May–Jun. |
| Oct – Nov | Bottoming | Base-forming. Erratic. 5-yr bottoms around Oct–Nov ~5–10 on scale. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Watch for reversal signals late Oct / early Nov. |
| Dec | Recovery | 5-yr begins recovering into Dec. Momentum builds for next Jan rally. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ± |
Entry point for next year's Q1 bull cycle. |
| Period | Yearly Bias | Monthly Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan – Mar | Bullish | Strong rally in 15-yr. Peaks earlier than 5-yr — late March around 95–100. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑↑ Wk4 ↑↑ Peak |
Peak forms end of March / very early April. |
| Apr | Topping / Bear | Peaks very early April then drops sharply. Sell pressure begins Wk1 end / Wk2. | Wk1 ↑ (brief) Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓↓ Wk4 ↓ |
15-yr peak comes slightly before 5-yr. Sell from Wk2. |
| May – Jun | Strongly Bearish | Deep decline. 15-yr shows trough around ~25–30 in Jun. Waterfall move. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Confirms 5-yr bear. Strong conviction short. |
| Jul | Sharp Bounce | 15-yr shows a sharp bounce in Jul up to ~75. Counter-trend rally. | Wk1 ↑↑ Wk2 ↑↑ Wk3 ± Wk4 ↓ |
Significant bounce — take profit on shorts. Possible long trade. |
| Aug – Sep | Bearish | Resumption of decline after Jul bounce. 15-yr rolls over again in Aug. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ± Wk4 ↓ |
Re-entry short after Jul bounce. |
| Oct – Nov | Choppy / Base | 15-yr grinds sideways. Bottoming process underway. No clean direction. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ± Wk4 ↑ |
Patience required. Bias shifts late Nov. |
| Dec | Recovery | 15-yr starts recovering in Dec. Moderate pace. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ± Wk4 ↑ |
Recovery confirmed. Lays groundwork for Q1 bull. |
| Period | Yearly Bias | Monthly Overview | Weekly Detail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan – Mar | Bullish | 34-yr rises from ~30 to ~85–90. Slower, steadier climb than shorter timeframes. | Wk1 ↑ Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Most reliable bull window of the year. Structural. |
| Apr | Peak & Turn | 34-yr peaks early-mid April around 85–90. Rollover is more gradual than 5-yr. | Wk1 ↑ Top Wk2 ± Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ↓ |
34-yr top slightly later than 15-yr. Wk1 still tradeable long. |
| May – Jun | Strongly Bearish | 34-yr drops sharply. Trough around 25 by late May / Jun. Structural sell. | Wk1 ↓↓ Wk2 ↓↓ Wk3 ↓ Wk4 ± |
Longest timeframe confirms the sell. Highest conviction. |
| Jul | Choppy Recovery | 34-yr shows modest bounce in Jul but subdued vs 15-yr. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ↑ Wk3 ± Wk4 ↓ |
Do not over-trade the bounce. 34-yr still bearish overall. |
| Aug – Sep | Bearish | 34-yr declines into Sep. Secondary low around Aug–Sep. | Wk1 ↓ Wk2 ↓ Wk3 ± Wk4 ± |
34-yr bear phase extends longer than shorter timeframes. |
| Oct – Dec | Gradual Recovery | 34-yr shows gradual base-building from Oct, steady recovery into Dec and Jan. | Wk1 ± Wk2 ± Wk3 ↑ Wk4 ↑ |
Slowest recovery of all 3 timeframes. Structural base only. |