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AUD / USD

Seasonal Tendency Analysis  ·  5-YR · 15-YR · 34-YR  ·  Moore Research Center
5-Year Seasonal
15-Year Seasonal
34-Year Seasonal
Combined Bias
Bullish
Bearish
Choppy
Combined Bias — All Timeframes Aligned

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Month 5-YR15-YR34-YR SignalConvictionTrade Note
Claude AI — Week-by-Week Bias Analysis
Claude Sonnet · Live Analysis
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5-Year Seasonal Outlook
PeriodYearly BiasMonthly OverviewWeekly DetailNotes
Jan – MarBullish Strong sustained rally. AUD elevated ~80–85 range. High volatility within uptrend.
Wk1 ↑
Wk2 ↑
Wk3 ↑
Wk4 ↑
Peak of the 5-yr cycle. Entire Q1 is bullish.
AprTopping / Turn Absolute peak hit early April (score ~100). Sharp reversal begins mid-month.
Wk1 ↑ Peak
Wk2 ↓
Wk3 ↓↓
Wk4 ↓↓
BUY Wk1, SELL Wk2–4. Most critical month of the year.
May – JunStrongly Bearish Steep waterfall decline. One of the deepest troughs of the year. Volatile.
Wk1 ↓↓
Wk2 ↓↓
Wk3 ↓
Wk4 ±
Hold short from Apr. Deep trough approaching Jun.
JulChoppy Volatile recovery attempts. No clean trend. Potential dead-cat bounce.
Wk1 ±
Wk2 ↑
Wk3 ±
Wk4 ↓
Avoid or trade very short-term only.
Aug – SepBearish Secondary leg lower. 5-yr shows continued weakness into Sep.
Wk1 ↓
Wk2 ↓
Wk3 ±
Wk4 ±
Secondary bear phase. Not as steep as May–Jun.
Oct – NovBottoming Base-forming. Erratic. 5-yr bottoms around Oct–Nov ~5–10 on scale.
Wk1 ±
Wk2 ±
Wk3 ↑
Wk4 ↑
Watch for reversal signals late Oct / early Nov.
DecRecovery 5-yr begins recovering into Dec. Momentum builds for next Jan rally.
Wk1 ↑
Wk2 ↑
Wk3 ↑
Wk4 ±
Entry point for next year's Q1 bull cycle.
15-Year Seasonal Outlook
PeriodYearly BiasMonthly OverviewWeekly DetailNotes
Jan – MarBullish Strong rally in 15-yr. Peaks earlier than 5-yr — late March around 95–100.
Wk1 ↑
Wk2 ↑
Wk3 ↑↑
Wk4 ↑↑ Peak
Peak forms end of March / very early April.
AprTopping / Bear Peaks very early April then drops sharply. Sell pressure begins Wk1 end / Wk2.
Wk1 ↑ (brief)
Wk2 ↓↓
Wk3 ↓↓
Wk4 ↓
15-yr peak comes slightly before 5-yr. Sell from Wk2.
May – JunStrongly Bearish Deep decline. 15-yr shows trough around ~25–30 in Jun. Waterfall move.
Wk1 ↓↓
Wk2 ↓↓
Wk3 ↓
Wk4 ±
Confirms 5-yr bear. Strong conviction short.
JulSharp Bounce 15-yr shows a sharp bounce in Jul up to ~75. Counter-trend rally.
Wk1 ↑↑
Wk2 ↑↑
Wk3 ±
Wk4 ↓
Significant bounce — take profit on shorts. Possible long trade.
Aug – SepBearish Resumption of decline after Jul bounce. 15-yr rolls over again in Aug.
Wk1 ↓
Wk2 ↓↓
Wk3 ±
Wk4 ↓
Re-entry short after Jul bounce.
Oct – NovChoppy / Base 15-yr grinds sideways. Bottoming process underway. No clean direction.
Wk1 ±
Wk2 ±
Wk3 ±
Wk4 ↑
Patience required. Bias shifts late Nov.
DecRecovery 15-yr starts recovering in Dec. Moderate pace.
Wk1 ↑
Wk2 ↑
Wk3 ±
Wk4 ↑
Recovery confirmed. Lays groundwork for Q1 bull.
34-Year Seasonal Outlook
PeriodYearly BiasMonthly OverviewWeekly DetailNotes
Jan – MarBullish 34-yr rises from ~30 to ~85–90. Slower, steadier climb than shorter timeframes.
Wk1 ↑
Wk2 ↑
Wk3 ↑
Wk4 ↑
Most reliable bull window of the year. Structural.
AprPeak & Turn 34-yr peaks early-mid April around 85–90. Rollover is more gradual than 5-yr.
Wk1 ↑ Top
Wk2 ±
Wk3 ↓
Wk4 ↓
34-yr top slightly later than 15-yr. Wk1 still tradeable long.
May – JunStrongly Bearish 34-yr drops sharply. Trough around 25 by late May / Jun. Structural sell.
Wk1 ↓↓
Wk2 ↓↓
Wk3 ↓
Wk4 ±
Longest timeframe confirms the sell. Highest conviction.
JulChoppy Recovery 34-yr shows modest bounce in Jul but subdued vs 15-yr.
Wk1 ±
Wk2 ↑
Wk3 ±
Wk4 ↓
Do not over-trade the bounce. 34-yr still bearish overall.
Aug – SepBearish 34-yr declines into Sep. Secondary low around Aug–Sep.
Wk1 ↓
Wk2 ↓
Wk3 ±
Wk4 ±
34-yr bear phase extends longer than shorter timeframes.
Oct – DecGradual Recovery 34-yr shows gradual base-building from Oct, steady recovery into Dec and Jan.
Wk1 ±
Wk2 ±
Wk3 ↑
Wk4 ↑
Slowest recovery of all 3 timeframes. Structural base only.
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Seasonal data source: Moore Research Center © 2020 · AUD/USD CME Futures · 34-Year Seasonal (1986–2019) · 15-Year · 5-Year overlays.
This analysis is based on historical seasonal tendencies only and does not constitute financial advice. Past seasonals do not guarantee future performance. © 2026 Kaminari Precision Trading. All rights reserved.  ·  Dashboard interface design and analysis framework by Kaminari Precision Trading. Seasonal tendency data sourced from Moore Research Center.